h a l f b a k e r yTempus fudge-it.
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For those of you unaware, Avian Flu is starting to pick up strength in parts of Asia. Mortality rates appear to be roughly 40-50%, at the moment, depending upon which report you read.
The immunisation of at least 30% of your country's population (Those at risk include rural workers, airport staff,
cab drivers and international and domestic air travellers) should put a substantial barrier in the way of its natural spread.
It won't eliminate it, but it will retard the pandemic effect, quickly.
Vaccines are already under development. If you thought SARS was scary then you ain't seen this one, yet.
WHO stats on Avian Influenza
http://www.who.int/...09_19/en/index.html
[UnaBubba, Sep 21 2005]
UK Dept of Health Flu Pandemic Plan
http://www.dh.gov.u.../17/44/04121744.pdf
The pland for the UK to deal with a flu pandemic [oneoffdave, Feb 27 2006]
"For those of you unaware"? Only if asleep for the last 8 years.
http://www.newscien...mg15721193.900.html
1998 article: "Most experts believe it is only a question of time before the next pandemic strikes" [gtoal, Feb 27 2006]
"A crucial element is to quickly vaccinate as many people as possible"
http://www.newscien...mg16522232.900.html
Poignant advice from yr 2000 on how to prepare for next pandemic. Pretty much ignored by US govt. [gtoal, Feb 27 2006]
[link]
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Is this a friendly warning? If so mark it for expiry. If not, the only thing preventing it from marking it for a "let's all" is the mention of 30% which, come to think of it, is probably exactly why you put that number in the idea. |
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It's a basic warning. It's also a novel plan to commit some resources to a fight that is coming, like it or not. None of the literature I have seen, on combatting influenza, has ever taken this approach. |
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As for the supposed 30% motivation, [Susan], you don't know me well enough. That's not a game I'd bother to play. |
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A novel plan? They don't inoculate against the flu in Australia? That could indeed cause some serious problems. |
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Sorry about that 30% remark. I should have realized that you don't need that sort of thing.
Nice to know you think I know you a little though.<grinning> |
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Most countries, including mine, offer the option for citizens to innoculate against 'flu. To my knowledge there is little willingness by democratic governments to systematically target the portion of the population most likely to act as infection vectors, as specified in the idea. |
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This 'flu has a higher mortality rate than smallpox. It's frightening. |
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It's the amount of vaccine that's required which is scary. Turning production over to it takes a lot of money and time. I read somewhere (New Scientist, probably) that there were six factories turned over to SARS vaccine production. They produced something like a tenth of the required amount of vaccine. |
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// target the portion of the population most likely to act as infection vectors//
Poor taxi drivers, they'll be getting new vaccinations for different illnesses every week. |
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There appears to be practically no way we can stop a pandemic, even if we catch it early. |
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As far as I know there isn't a vaccine against bird flu. But then again I don't even know the difference between immunisation, inoculation and vaccination. |
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While barrier immunization is a sensible idea (look at the way other vaccinations effectively stop the respective pandemics, even when vaccination rates are well below 100%), I thought we hadn't come up with a vaccine to bird flu, and even if we did, it would likely be ineffective against the mutation that gives rise to a pandemic. |
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[hippo] You and me are in the same boat, grab an oar and start rowing! |
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I think that enough medicine could be made, given the proper incentive. The US navy rebuilt one of the ships half destroyed at pearl harbor in two days, when it might have taken 2 months, just in time to defeat the japs at some battle over an island, and not only that, but the ships sent to defend the island were outnumbered by japanese carriers! |
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I think that if someone would actually do something, and fling a bunch of money at building new factories and research facilities, this whole pandemic would not be a pandemic! You've seen the show Home Makeover, where they have 100+ construction people take down a house, and then rebuild a new house, bigger, and better, in 7 days, why can't the government do something like this? |
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I've heard stuff about how the contractors and companies that recieve a grant from congress to build something, don't give a flip about costs and say they 'went over budget', or something equally as BS. |
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Congress, should just say: "Hey, build this, here's your money, do it quick, and if you need more, to bad!". And if said company asks for more money, employ a different company, or an army of different companies! |
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The problem in developing a suitable vaccine against Highly Pathogenic Avian Flu (H5N1) is that until it becomes common in humans, we won't know which strain to actually vaccinate against. Once we know which strain it will take time to grow suitable amounts of vaccine and test them. Throwing resources at this can speed up the distribution, but natural processes involved in the production still limit how fast the vaccine can be churned out. |
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oneoffdave is right. Vaccine against H5N1 will stop humans catching it from birds, but will not stop it turning into a pandemic. For that to happen, the H5N1 virus will have to mutate in such a way that it can be contracted directly from person to person. WIth such a mutation, any vaccine will be ineffective, as it will not be created for the "dangerous" version of the virus.
I heard an eminent professor of epidemiology on the radio the other day discussing this, and the fact is, it is just as likely for a commonly spreadable version of flu to mutate and become lethal (as Spanish flu did in 1918) as it is for the Avain flu to mutate to become spreadable in humans. So it is just as likely that the next flu pandemic (and there will be one, as statistically they just happen) will not come from avian flu anyway. In fact, probably more likely that it won't than will, given that H5N1 is just one of hundreds of flu strains out there. |
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