h a l f b a k e r y
This would work fine, except in terms of success.
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Packaged as a neat futuristic looking device with knobs and digital readouts, it'll give you an accurate estimate of just how many alien civilizations are out there, waiting to be found.
Turn up the knob on the star formation rate, and watch those civilizations multiply!
Turn down the knob
on the fraction of live planets that evolve intelligence (there's no proof, after all), and watch those civilizations dwindle!
For an extra $9.99, add an audio chip using the digitally sampled voice of Carl Sagan to read out the output.
Drake's Equation Primer
http://www.seti-ins...ience/drake-bg.html
[theircompetitor, Oct 04 2004, last modified Oct 05 2004]
Aliens Cause Global Warming
http://www.crichton...eeches_quote04.html
Crichton points out the scientific fallacy of Drake's equation. [waugsqueke, Oct 04 2004, last modified Oct 05 2004]
here ya go!
http://www.seds.org/~rme/drakeeqn.htm
enter your own values... [futurebird, Oct 04 2004, last modified Oct 05 2004]
Excel spreadsheet of Drake's Equation
http://www.neatherd...stronomy/Aliens.htm
Available for download here. [waugsqueke, Oct 04 2004, last modified Oct 05 2004]
Database of Current Thinking
http://www.halfbake...0Current_20Thinking
A lot of the discussion on this thread is very relevant to Crichton's article, above. [DrBob, Oct 04 2004, last modified Oct 05 2004]
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waugs -- this is very interesting, thanks. |
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It's Crichton, so 'grain of salt' and all that, but I think he makes some very interesting points, particularly with regard to "concensus of science" baloney. |
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Agreed. I think the heresy aspect has lots of examples, from Atkins diet to Global Warming -- regarless of the merits of the individual idea, scientists do tend to have as tough a time as any other orthodoxy in accepting new thought. |
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futurebird: current marketing plans are for the next holiday season. However, we're accepting pre-orders. |
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waugs: excellent article; I've seen myself the absurdities of the arguments about the ozone layer. I'm off outside to get a drag of some secondhand smoke. |
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Over the weekend I saw a WWI naval gunnery computer that had various knob and wheel driven input settings and then it chuntered out a result. This could be adapted to do this and would look wonderful too. |
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What's the point of this? If you want random numbers, use something involving radioactive decay, which is always more fun. And if you want unreliable statistics, hire pollsters. |
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On the other hand Crichton's essay must get some sort of credit for getting more than half way through before comparing contemporary scientists to nazis. |
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