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If quantifiable search data were available to an individual, I bet one could create algorithms that predict the rising and falling of stocks and or industry-related mutual funds, based on the frequency of searches to specific terms.
For example:
Anxiety-related terms --> invest in commodities.
etc.
I know Google has a relative comparison of search term frequency for Google news, but I don't know of any quantifiable data that's not proprietary.
Google Zeitgeist
http://www.google.c...ress/zeitgeist.html
[DrCurry, May 07 2008]
Efficient Market Hypothesis
http://en.wikipedia...t_market_hypothesis
The idea that (in its strongest form) all available information is currently encoded in stock prices. [Srimech, May 07 2008]
Non Linear Dynamics
http://www.amazon.c...d=1210198673&sr=1-1
We can tell you the shape, wholesale. [gnomethang, May 07 2008]
Annotation:
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Predicting markets is notoriously difficult, but I think you might be on to something here, even if your idea should be renamed "Sell google traffic analysis data to investment banks". I fact it wouldn't surprise me if google already did this. |
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I think such a collection of information might work well if dedicated to specific types of stock and adjusted for time critical fluctuations based on historical analysis. Automatically calculated factors of confidence keyed together with various chance predictors would build a "guess" factor to a point of being correct at least 51%...and really, that's all you need. |
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What are "Anxiety-related terms"? What "war", "death", "Bush"? |
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/at least 51%...and really, that's all you need./ |
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Only if you're making at least double on the ones you get right. |
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//What are "Anxiety-related terms"?// Not sure, if i was to start guessing, i would examine increase in global warming terms--> relative to specific venture capital firms. |
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But, it's probably (obviously)not that easy. Just having the past data, for a year or so, however might allow you to test some for correlations, if you could get the numeric data. |
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Stock market analysis is a subject which me and many of my software engineer friends have considered. The problem we've all come up against is finding a large, cheap corpus of news with date information. |
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You can potentially scrape various news sites but I've yet to find one that allows it in their terms and conditions. So for me this idea falls at the first hurdle, where you say "if quantifiable search data were available." |
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You might also want to look up the Efficient Market hypothesis. |
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Corn Prices over 150 years [Srimech}
"Its all in the book!" - Link |
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