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Epidemiology Betting Pool

Handicapping the vulnerabilities
  [vote for,

Background: Light dinner conversation last night touched on why COVID-19 seems to be having a disproportionate impact on people over 60. Compared it to other pandemics that hit the very young and old alike, or the 1918 pandemic that hit people in early adulthood and middle-age.

The "Epidemiology Betting Pool" would take wagers on various explanations as to WHY certain groups are more at risk than others. Payoffs would be small for vague and easy guesses (the elderly already have weakened immune systems) to somewhat higher payouts if more specific and less obvious findings ("reduced serum levels of DHEA" or "using specific medications to treat other pre-existing conditions") are confirmed.

Professional epidemiologists would be excluded from placing wagers in the public pool, it would be too much like insider trading. But they could have their own pool - I kinda think some of them already do.

Just to get the ball rolling - I'd like to place my bet that the risk of serious complications from COVID-19 increases dramatically for anyone who contracted the "Asian Flu" around 1957-1958 (H2-N2 influenza pandemic)

Chairborne Hero, Mar 16 2020

1957 pandemic https://www.cdc.gov...-1958-pandemic.html
[Chairborne Hero, Mar 16 2020]

Do some medications make elderly patients more vulnerable? https://www.bmj.com...t/368/bmj.m810/rr-2
ACE inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor antagonists? [Chairborne Hero, Mar 16 2020]

Comorbidities - Diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, respiratory issues https://www.thelanc...2600(20)30116-8.pdf
[Chairborne Hero, Mar 16 2020]


       We will have USD $1 on "Actuaries are going round killing them off to reduce their pension fund's exposure to long-lived subscribers".   

       We wish to make it clear that we are not in any way associated with or employed by Buchanan Pensions Inc, nor have we seen Sturton sneaking round hospital corridors in the early hours of the morning, wearing a stolen white coat and with a pillow under his arm.   

       And if we thought we did, we immediately looked away.
8th of 7, Mar 16 2020

       //Professional epidemiologists would be excluded from placing wagers in the public pool//   

       No no no, make it an open market. Someone with a strong hunch will bet more on a given cause, lowering the relative payout. Use the invisible hand to direct research efforts.
Voice, Mar 16 2020

       // Use the invisible hand to direct research efforts. //   

       Manipulated altruism? Where's the pleasure in that?
Chairborne Hero, Mar 16 2020

       None that we can see.
8th of 7, Mar 16 2020

       So it's a prediction market? Alright. [+]
notexactly, Mar 20 2020


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