Half a croissant, on a plate, with a sign in front of it saying '50c'
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How 'bout no?

grind bones, make bread.
 
(+3, -3)
  [vote for,
against]

Well...

...it's almost time to start overthrowing shit... again.

Sad really.

I'm starting the "How 'bout no?" campaign to try and offset the shit I see coming. Like;
Nike campaign: Just do it?
How 'bout no?
How about quit making seven year olds crank out your shoes.

Nope.

Your government is mandating the bankruptcy of your country and giving themselves power they do not currently possess...
How 'bout no?

How about instead we figure out ways to counteract this bullshit I see every friggin-where I look and take back rationality.

I propose that it start with a mass exodus of tax paying.
If 'they' really want to see democracy in action I can think of no better way of being heard than to...

just...

say...

no...

...it's easy really.

Try to put us all in jail for non-conformity...
...see what that get's ya.
Dumb fucks. Bring it.

It's my guess that we're all a bit more inclined to stop listening to the ever increasing propaganda now. Took long enough.

My family, (bless 'em) gifted me with a Nike ball cap with 'How About No?' stitched into the back.

So far nobody has noticed...


https://www.youtube...watch?v=-zQTcMwPCRQ [a1, Jul 30 2022]

Covid deaths / new cases by year https://www.google....eid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Big spike in new cases because of easing of lockdowns or proliferation of home test kits? Dunno. [doctorremulac3, Jul 31 2022]

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people https://ourworldind...DEU~GBR~FRA~AUS~JPN
interactive graph from ourworldindata.org [Loris, Aug 01 2022]

omicron coronavirus subvariant BA.5 https://arstechnica...aths-remain-stable/
[a1, Aug 04 2022]

New Chinese virus https://www.euronew...-monitored-in-china
You can't fix stupid [4and20, Aug 10 2022]

Big long story about how great the Wuhan lab was by the only foreign scientist https://www.bloombe...nstitute-speaks-out
And buried deep, deep in the article: ‘"I’m Not Naive’ It’s not that it’s impossible the virus spilled from there." [doctorremulac3, Aug 12 2022]

"I created it" https://www.mediait...d-at-baseball-game/
Fauci Confesses He Cooked Up COVID in His Kitchen [a1, Aug 12 2022]

One article addressing the number of bats sold https://www.nature..../s41598-021-91470-2
[doctorremulac3, Aug 12 2022]

This is pretty interesting https://www.ox.ac.u...angolins-have-alibi
[doctorremulac3, Aug 12 2022]

So much for banning what's called "bush meat" https://www.aljazee...s-despite-suspected
It's been tried evidently. Works about as well as banning marijuana. [doctorremulac3, Aug 12 2022]

Bats are very commonly sold at wet markets. https://www.scmp.co...le&campaign=3096961
Not really up for discussion. [doctorremulac3, Aug 13 2022]

Covid origin studies say evidence points to Wuhan market https://www.bbc.co....nvironment-62307383
BBC article, July 2022 [Loris, Aug 13 2022]

Not sure why lab leaks have been relegated to the category of Big Foot sightings. https://armscontrol...al-2-17-14-copy.pdf
They do occur. Article from 2014. [doctorremulac3, Aug 14 2022]

Lab leaks through history. https://en.wikipedi...osecurity_incidents
And the Wuhan lab was investigated and given a horrible safety grade assessment. [doctorremulac3, Aug 14 2022]


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Annotation:







       Things aren't nearly bad enough for the people to unite against the government.
Voice, Jul 29 2022
  

       I respectfully disagree.   

       By the time it gets 'bad enough' it's much too late.
Bastards will be brought to heel now, and get back to public 'service' or find out the hard way that selling out doesn't pay.
  

       ...again.   

       No taxation without representation?
We are not our ancestors. We will not hesitate to fuck them up.
I say the bullshit stops now... or the gravy train does.
  

       How they gonna fund our neck-boot-stompers without pay?   

       It's time to vote with our taxes.
No confidence... no tax.
  

       You think they can jail the entire population for tax evasion?
Please...
  

       It's their biggest fear.
We just say no, en masse.
  

       Simple.   

       Isn't this an example of "let's all"?
xenzag, Jul 29 2022
  

       Or, perhaps, "let's all not".
pertinax, Jul 29 2022
  

       Exactly.   

       But "no" is not enough.   

       "What happens the day after the revolution?" is a very important question. And unless you have a really good answer, the default answer is "descent into dictatorship, by way of civil war". In which case, there will be a very real, tangible boot/neck thing going on, which, in our countries, there isn't (yet).   

       And so far, really good answers have been very thin on the ground.   

       If you can propose "Instead of *this*, *that*", then we can talk - but "not this!" alone gets a fishbone from me. [-]
pertinax, Jul 29 2022
  

       // I respectfully disagree. //   

       You may have misunderstood. I'm not commenting on whether a revolution would be good or justified, I'm saying it won't happen under these, or anything remotely near these, circumstances due to lack of participation.
Voice, Jul 29 2022
  

       + gotta try something. Those who say it’s not bad enough must live somewhere else.
xandram, Jul 29 2022
  

       [-] How About No? If you think there are so many problems, I'd rather hear ideas and solutions than some catchphrase whining.
tatterdemalion, Jul 29 2022
  

       // So far nobody has noticed... //   

       Sorry? Were you saying something?
a1, Jul 29 2022
  

       //"What happens the day after the revolution?" is a very important question. And unless you have a really good answer, the default answer is "descent into dictatorship, by way of civil war".//   

       Well... I see existing areas breaking away from a centralized Federal government and becoming countries in their own right without the need for civil war.
They don't have the guts and we do.
  

       //If you think there are so many problems, I'd rather hear ideas and solutions than some catchphrase whining.//   

       Hey I'm just trying to head things off at the pass.
If you've a more effective way to get one's government to smarten up than taking away their allowance en masse I would love to hear it. I do not see non participation as a problem. When 'they' started seizing our personal bank accounts for daring to contribute even fifty bucks towards protesting their shit something changed in our collective mentality.
  

       We can and will just shut off the fucking tap.   

       It is an instant solution to the problems at hand and the beginning of a host of new problems as [pertinax] said.
Every new beginning comes from some other beginnings end.
  

       //Sorry? Were you saying something?//   

       Did you know that since the Canadian Trucker Rally started in British Columbia, (as we are the most raped by our federal government), that to this day only BC nurses and doctors haven't be re-hired for non-compliance thereby creating the Healthcare Crisis?
That only unvaccinated BC citizens of Canada are restricted from travel still while unvaccinated Ukrainians can travel freely?
  

       All of it arbitrary punitive bullshit for daring to say fuck you.   

       We can do this the easy way or we can do it the hard way.
That's kinda up to the asswipes forcing arbitrary rules down our throats, but either way, they will stop.
  

       Behold the revolutionary hero.   

       Owns an RV camp, prepping for when the shit hits the fan. Waves a protest sign if someone else arranges the protest. Posts fortnightly rants on websites what ain’t banned him (yet). Curses a lot.   

       That’s not gonna change the world. You personally done anything more than that?
a1, Jul 30 2022
  

       Don't shoot the messenger...   

       "I" don't have to 'do' anything, but yes, I've planted seeds which will grow to fruition the same way I planted the seeds which led me to this place.   

       I've figured out a way for a large group of people to 'maybe' get through the shit I see coming, sacrificed two decades... and actually pulled it off.   

       No whining. Just work.   

       You've got a better plan for the future than mine? Again, I'm all ears.   

       My plan? I might put a bumper sticker on my car. That’ll do about as much as your rants. Maybe more, if I park somewhere with more daily traffic than this website.
a1, Jul 30 2022
  

       I'll take one of those caps 2 fries. Make mine say "How about fuck no?"
doctorremulac3, Jul 30 2022
  

       You can call my seeds rants if you wish. They don't mind one bit.   

       This website is more important than you think. It's the last hold out of what the internet was supposed to be.
Just minds exchanging thoughts. No hype. No ads. No pictures. Just black text on a white screen.
Absolute genius [jutta] and crew btw.
Designed to screen out the intellectually challenged so that cream can rise and actual ideas exchanged.
  

       Brilliant.   

       No I'm pretty sure I'm speaking to the right crowd.   

       // pretty sure I’m speaking to the right crowd //   

       Not here you aren’t. [jutta] herself has reminded you several times to take your politics elsewhere, because they don’t belong here.
a1, Jul 30 2022
  

       Didn't you just post something about hating Donald Trump after we all enjoyed a very nice break from all of that?   

       How about losing the vitriol eh? Let's try not to go back into Hatebakery mode. It's been really nice and friendly here the past few months, let's keep it that way.   

       This place can be a lot of fun, let's try being nice to each other.
doctorremulac3, Jul 30 2022
  

       Just gonna throw this out there: Except for quite a few of the 3rd-world countries, virtually every healthcare system has been laser-focused on identifying Covid cases and deaths. And yet world health organizations regularly estimate that the "real" Covid mortality figures are 2 or 3 times official figures. This seems to be based on unexpectedly high excess deaths.   

       But what if those excess deaths can be attributed to some number of the vaccines themselves?   

       p.s. Trump is a criminally stupid, frogjumping dictator.
4and20, Jul 30 2022
  

       //black text on a white screen.//   

       It should be the other way. It's easier on the eyes and saves electricity
Voice, Jul 30 2022
  

       // Trump is a criminally stupid, frogjumping dictator.//   

       That comment can only end in friendly agreement with the most reasonable middle ground after a period of honest introspection and debate focused on facts and rationality, wherein egos and political orientations are left at the door.
Voice, Jul 30 2022
  

       Damn. That's the problem of (political) philosophy. Someone is always stealing philosophy and turning it into a science.
4and20, Jul 30 2022
  

       [xandram], you're right; some of us do live in relatively privileged places, so we may be missing some of what is happening.   

       So, looking around you, what problems do you see and, of those problems, which ones would be improved by the chaotic collapse of the federal government?
pertinax, Jul 30 2022
  

       // Didn't you just post something about hating Donald Trump //   

       Nope, I posted a bit of political satire, since deleted.   

       But to your assertion that HB is supposed to be a friendly fun place, with everyone being nice to each other - I can’t see that in a non-invention post that starts off by saying he needs to throw shit and implies everyone who doesn’t see it his way is a dumb fuck.
a1, Jul 30 2022
  

       So if you imply that anybody that supports Trump is dumb as fuck it's only political satire?   

       This is a free speech forum, but at some point gotta ask yourself, what's the point? "Am I just here to beat people up or have some fun with silly ideas, discussions about life, science, technology etc?".   

       Your choice, but I think the latter is a lot more fun. Just my opinion.
doctorremulac3, Jul 30 2022
  

       Nope, didn’t say it or mean to imply it. Nor would I throw any kind of “have you stopped beating your wife yet” distraction in the middle of someone else’s discussion. Randy and I are just having a friendly and fun little back and forth as we do every few weeks.   

       You have any comments on his idea?
a1, Jul 30 2022
  

       Nope.
doctorremulac3, Jul 30 2022
  

       //But what if those excess deaths can be attributed to some number of the vaccines themselves?//   

       Oh, we don't talk about that yet. Another couple of weeks should flatten that curve.   

       //[jutta] herself has reminded you several times to take your politics elsewhere, because they don’t belong here.//   

       Yes she has my profoundest apologies for venting. My political views don't seem to belong anywhere anymore... and you folks seem to be the last hold-outs able to discuss subjects without segregation.   

       Am I mistaken in this assumption?   

       //I can’t see that in a non-invention post that starts off by saying he needs to throw shit and implies everyone who doesn’t see it his way is a dumb fuck//   

       Is that what 'you' think that 'I' think?
That anyone who doesn't see things my way is a dumb fuck?
I have always been and hopefully will remain the perpetual newb.
I only learn visually and hands-on which means I am constantly diving in way over my head and respectfully learning very quickly from those around me.
  

       When my knowledge of a subject exceeds that of those around me I expect to be heard, just as I listened.   

       I've earned it.
A person unwilling to listen to what I have learned from experience and try to convey to them is wilfully ignorant.
  

       This posting is not a rant. It is a viable solution to stave off civil war.
We don't have to drive thousands of kilometers to protest at all. We can just vote by withholding our taxes.
  

       //So, looking around you, what problems do you see and, of those problems, which ones would be improved by the chaotic collapse of the federal government?//   

       I know this question wasn't directed at me but...   

       Can't speak for the U.S. federal government but Canada was supposed to lose not only its Federal government but also Federal income tax when WW2 ended. Instead they instituted a temporary Goods And Services tax and then a Harmonized Sales Tax to fight over so that the GST became permanent, and as it now stands we pay more in taxes before and after collecting our pay cheques than any other country on Earth.   

       Abolishing our Federal government would stimulate our economies, allow funds to be channelled properly where they are needed instead of being given away to other countries. Homelessness could be abolished. Health care workers could be paid what they are worth. Teachers could be paid what they are worth.   

       Instead it all goes to Ottawa to be given away to whomsoever tickles our Prime Ministers balls on any given day.   

       Oh, did I mention that he's regulating the FAA to remove his flight records so that his carbon footprint doesn't count?   

       ...   

       That little piece of wanna-be dictator shit!   

       Not on my watch.   

       Forget that the catch-phrase... 'How 'bout no' as a way of life.   

       It is however 'My' way of life.
...and it kind of begs the question:
  

       What can you do about it?
Show me.
  

       At least the prime minister has started cutting his own hair, and is getting his pubes done by an out-of-work abortionist.
4and20, Jul 31 2022
  

       answer for [pert] I’m not a big fan of drag queen story hour for school children! We could start there and stop that stuff.
xandram, Jul 31 2022
  

       This whole teaching children about alternate sexualities isn't about any love the power mad globalist elite billionaire class has for gay people, it's about wresting control of the children's education from the parents by purposefully chosing a sensitive subject. And specifically attacking bourgeoisie values and the nuclear family in favor of having the state control the direction of the youth isn't new, just fascism's flavor of the month.   

       If parents typically told their kids drag queen bedtime stories for centuries, the power hungry, self appointed ruling class oligarchy would make it a point to teach the evils of homosexuality in schools.   

       The only values they're really preaching is "We're in absolute total control."   

       If I were gay, and some of my friends and heros are exactly that, I'd stand up to this nonsense and say "Quit weaponizing us in your quest for power.".
doctorremulac3, Jul 31 2022
  

       //Just gonna throw this out there: Except for quite a few of the 3rd-world countries, virtually every healthcare system has been laser-focused on identifying Covid cases and deaths. And yet world health organizations regularly estimate that the "real" Covid mortality figures are 2 or 3 times official figures. This seems to be based on unexpectedly high excess deaths.   

       But what if those excess deaths can be attributed to some number of the vaccines themselves?//   

       Yeah, so the timeline doesn't fit with that.   

       I think it was back when I was arguing with bigsleep, he asked me if I thought covid was the major cause of death, and I said - no, it wasn't at that point. So he was pretty disparaging about that, but the thing is, I looked back at the mortality curves and ... IIRC, for a few weeks in the first wave of the epidemic (around May, 2020) the mortality rate in the UK was more than double the 'normal' value. Most of these weren't included in the official covid-related deaths figure (because they were not tested and confirmed), but I think it's basically certain that the great majority of the excess deaths there are direct covid-related mortality. I don't think I posted that at the time.   

       Obviously, this was well before vaccines were being administered, so they're not a consideration for that point. I had my first covid vaccination about a year later.
Most, probably almost all of the 'assumed-covid' excess deaths occurred early-on. Later, covid testing became more wide-spread, but also, the death-rate came back down to about the typical value as people were either vaccinated or had previously been infected.
  

       And yes, getting vaccinated does have a risk associated with it. But very careful and ongoing tracking suggests that it's a very, very small risk, of the order of one or two deaths per million at worst. That isn't going to make a significant difference to the death rate (which knowledge of the human life expectancy and a simple calculation should tell you is more than 1% per year).
And yes, maybe you can argue that there's been a cover-up. But that's a) ridiculous, given the scale and number of people who would have to be involved, b) unnecessary, given that we already have an explanation for the excess deaths.
  

       It's like - maybe smoking cigarettes doesn't kill people; it used to, but now it's the anti-smoking advertisements. Maybe there's like one or two on the margins who are so creeped out by a scary ad that they kill themselves. But smoking long-term kills something like 25% of smokers.
Loris, Jul 31 2022
  

       Somewhat related, I was looking at a couple of monthly charts, the death rate and new infection rate and it seems that we had 4 big spikes in the death rate, the 4th one being this year that had me a bit confused. At that point almost everybody had either been vaccinated or developed some immunity from having contracted this thing, so why the last two massive jumps in deaths?   

       Then I looked at the new infections chart that showed the biggest jump in new infections that corresponded with this last death spike and thought one of two things: 1) new infections set a record because people got tired of lockdowns, isolation etc or 2) test kits became available at most corner drugstores and people just knew they were infected where as before they just wouldn't know.   

       I'm 90% sure I had covid in late 2019 (before Covid was known about) because I work in close proximity to international traveling engineers, one case a gentleman from China that was so sick from the "flu" that he looked like he was going to die. Santa Clara county was the infection entry point for the US as well. I work at very high security facilities that use biometric hand readers to get into areas and they're basically petri dishes. Point is, you can have Covid and not know it. My voice sounded like a 90 year old blues singer and I felt groggy (like a 90 year old blues singer) but that was about it. When I got the vaccine I felt the exact same grogginess so I think there's a good chance I had it.   

       And I thought viruses were supposed to mutate and evolve to their benefit, that is, being more transmissible but less deadly. This thing isn't acting like that at all judging by these charts.   

       See the two links, be curious to get another opinion on what the heck's going on.
doctorremulac3, Jul 31 2022
  

       My opinion will be unpopular, but I'm going to say it anyway. Check out the number of official flu deaths and observe that the flu and many other respiratory ailments have been cast into the covid basket. To get an idea of the actual covid death rate you need to compare total deaths to what it has been, taking into account the year-on-year increase due to demographic shifts. And those numbers say that all things considered the illness has not been knocking us out like flies.
Voice, Jul 31 2022
  

       Don't worry about being unpopular V, most open minded free thinkers are. I heard that Covid basically cured the flu somehow. They say it's because of the efficacy of the lockdowns but I'm pretty sceptical about any info regarding this thing at this point. How much is flu getting prevented by lockdowns, how much is miscategorization? Is it a little of both? Damned if I know.
doctorremulac3, Jul 31 2022
  

       It *cured* the flu because the illness was listed as Covid, not flu. It’s that simple. Statistics ya know.
xandram, Jul 31 2022
  

       Kinda looks like that way. I don't think any chart that shows Covid infections that doesn't refer to the drop in flu infections during that same period is reliable. That needs to be taken into consideration. If you had 1,000 flu infections in an area last year, this year you have 900 Covid infections and only 100 cases of the flu, that's fine, but you need to explain it.   

       The only cover story I can see is that everybody wore masks so nobody got the flu, but Covid is much more sinister than the flu and can get through masks. I don't know, I'm not the one explaing this stuff, I'm only the one asking questions.   

       I don't have an explanation other than they're counting flu as Covid, unless there's some kind of new development where Covid really DOES cure the flu to make way for Covid, which of course nobody has suggested. Yet anyway.
doctorremulac3, Jul 31 2022
  

       //It *cured* the flu because the illness was listed as Covid, not flu. It’s that simple. Statistics ya know.//   

       Well, that sort of error would certainly explain a drop in reported flu cases. Of course, if you get a positive covid test, it's not flu (or at least, not /only/ flu) because the tests don't cross-react. (At least they shouldn't - any test which gives a positive result for viruses of /another phyla/ would be so unspecific as to be unfit for purpose.)
To the extent that people get sick and self-diagnose without testing, though, it's something which can happen. Whether that affects "the statistics" will depend on how the statistic in question is actually measured.
  

       On the other hand, though, a reason why flu infections might actually go down would be because the whole point of the lockdowns, masks etc was to reduce spread of a transmissible respiratory disease. This will obviously vary depending on the strictness of the measures - and these did vary quite a bit - but it's not surprising that a measure against one infectious respiratory disease would reduce the spread of others, at least while it's active.
There's been reports here of flu etc. rebounding after people predominantly stopped taking covid precautions, because more people not had it for longer than normal and their resistance had waned.
  

       As doctorremulac3 said, it's likely to be a bit of both.   

       It would be smart to be a bit less loose with the terminology, though. Neither of these is /curing/ flu.
Loris, Jul 31 2022
  

       What [Loris] said.
Also, there was (IIRC) a massive drop-off in STI's during the extended lockdowns. I don't think they were "cured by Covid" either... Funny how "being careful with health" results in healthier people.
neutrinos_shadow, Aug 01 2022
  

       My whole life I've gotten sick at least twice every year. In the spring and in the fall. Some years I might get one or two more depending on circumstances.   

       The last time I got so much as the sniffles was three years ago, right about the time this whole shiteree started. I was very ill but was working alone and just powered through like I've always done.   

       Since then we've been inundated with folks from everywhere and yet I feel healthier than when I was in my thirties.
Three years now of working seven days a week and not one cold.
  

       Very strange if you ask me.   

       I have yet to take the shots 'they' are calling vaccines and have no intention of doing so.
Vaccines confer immunity. Whatever these things are just confer profit and have taken the brand-name vaccine.
  

       We strongly need to consider the possibility that we've all been lied to and, at this point, pre-conditioned to not question our 'experts'... or at least the one's who weren't fired for dissenting.   

       In the words of Bubbles from the Trailer Park Boys;
"Somethings fucky Ricky."
  

       //Also, there was (IIRC) a massive drop-off in STI's during the extended lockdowns. I don't think they were "cured by Covid" either... Funny how "being careful with health" results in healthier people.//   

       Right, with everything except Covid, that's what I'm asking about. Check out the charts. Is Covid just so much more easy to catch that lockdowns work with everything EXCEPT Covid? Maybe, but if so, how come nobody's said that? Not that I've heard at least. And why the biggest jump after everybody's had their shots? I could see if it was one slope up but it cycles.   

       Which is why I asked if that was the case about Covid just having a much different propagating profile if that's the term. Everybody seems to know everything there is to know about Covid except me.   

       Until I start asking questions.
doctorremulac3, Aug 01 2022
  

       (standard disclaimer, am a biologist but not a virology expert etc etc)   

       //Right, with everything except Covid, that's what I'm asking about. Check out the charts. Is Covid just so much more easy to catch that lockdowns work with everything EXCEPT Covid? Maybe, but if so, how come nobody's said that? Not that I've heard at least. And why the biggest jump after everybody's had their shots? I could see if it was one slope up but it cycles.//   

       Not sure what data you're looking at there. I mean, I see your link for covid, but it shows deaths are are fairly low now, don't see either population infection data or anything about other diseases.
In any case, when things got worse, governments introduced lockdowns, and infection levels gradually resolved. Then they'd take the measures away. But then it could spread again.
Here at least, since basically everybody who wants to be vaccinated has been, there haven't been any stringent measures for a long time - and covid prevalence is now pretty high. It bobs up and down, but because it can reinfect people after a few months it's not going away. It's just not killing a huge amount of people - it's becoming like a normal cold.
  

       //Which is why I asked if that was the case about Covid just having a much different propagating profile if that's the term. Everybody seems to know everything there is to know about Covid except me.//   

       People have routinely had several colds per year since ... well, probably since there have been people. These viruses apparently manage not to rile up the immune system enough to get a long-term, high-end response. So that isn't a novel Covid-19 thing, it's a standard coronavirus ('common cold virus') thing. But fortunately there is some immune memory and you're not likely to get very sick on reinfection.
Maybe it's just that this sort of virus has a very quick infection scale-up, so although a primed immune system reacts as normal, it isn't fast enough to top it before you get symptoms. I don't know, and that would be something to ask a real virologist. The answer might be involved, though.
Nevertheless, I don't think Covid-19 has an unusual "propagation profile" - it's just new (to humans), and maybe especially because of that, more lethal. The newer variants are much more transmissible than the initial strain, and harder for lockdowns to prevent - these caught some countries out /again/. But vaccination (and/or previous infection) seems to be a reasonable defence against serious illness for most people.
Loris, Aug 01 2022
  

       Good stuff, thank you L.   

       My main question was about that last death spike which is the same as the first death spike. I had heard, correctly or not, that as viruses evolve and become more transmissible they become less virulent. An evolutionary survival tactic, don't burn down the habitats you want to live in basically.   

       So if that's true, with that last death spike you've got two opposing sets of factors, the fact that most people have been vaccinated or have some measure if natural immunity having had Covid vs lockdowns opening up.   

       But where is that other factor of the virus mutating into a less virulent strain? Can the death rate being the same as that first death spike when we didn't have any protective measures in place be explained only by lockdowns being lifted? Maybe, but for the first spike and the last to be the same, well, I guess "disappointed" is the word I'm looking for.   

       But what I'm getting at is the big picture: if we've got a less virulent strain causing as many deaths as before we had both the vaccine and at least some measure of natural immunity, where does this thing end? We know we don't have a vaccine now, in what I thought a vaccine was, something that prevents infection. So okay, we've got something that might mitigate the effects of the virus, but at some point doesn't nature kick in and get rid of a deadly virus by replacing it with one that just morphs yearly so it can stick around like the common cold?   

       Is this the first naturally evolved permanent virus in human history that's this deadly? I find that hard to believe. It's much deadlier than the common flu and now I'm watching with great interest to see how it compares to the Spanish Flu (that supposedly actually came from the US) to see if it's going to do what that virus did, disappear somehow, and if not, why?
doctorremulac3, Aug 01 2022
  

       //My main question was about that last death spike which is the same as the first death spike.//   

       I didn't see what you were getting that, so I've posted another link, to an ourworldindata.org graph. You can add or remove countries and mouse over to read off values.
At the moment (well, 31st July), the death rate (of confirmed covid cases) is 1.24 per million in USA, 2.61 in UK and 0.97 in Canada.
At the highest point in the first lockdown, it was: USA- 6.66(Apr24, 2020), UK- 14.02(Apr13, 2020), Canada- 5.00 (May4, 2020). For the UK at least, the confirmed covid cases was very much an underestimate of total cases at that point, whereas for later peaks that was much less the case. Also, at that point remember the spread was limited - a major aim of the lockdowns was to prevent it progressing to hit everyone, all at once.
There's a second peak at Dec2020-Jan2021, and that is broader and peaks significantly higher for UK and USA, but is only broader for Canada.
There's some later peaks of about the same magnitude as the first in the US data in September 2021 and Jan/Feb 2022, the latter approximately corresponds to a minor peak in the other countries. USA (Feb1,2022) 7.74 deaths/million and UK (Jan18,2022) 4.05 deaths/million
  

       So I think you're looking at the first and last USA peaks and saying - well, they're about the same size... why are we getting /another/ peak after everybody has been vaccinated?
If so, I think it's a combination of favourable conditions for spread - I don't think there were many protective measures in place, people were mixing again and just less careful, declining immune resistance having been vaccinated or infected more than 6 months previously... and not everyone has been vaccinated. According to a graph on your link, only 68% of Americans are fully vaccinated now. Also, I don't know if under-counting of the first peak was a thing in America, but it certainly was here.
Here, we did occasionally have some news stories of epidemiologists looking somewhat nervously at the health system's capacity, but I think they were generally more confident that it could manage - they wern't expecting it to race out of control like it was going to in the first wave.
  

       //I had heard, correctly or not, that as viruses evolve and become more transmissible they become less virulent. An evolutionary survival tactic, don't burn down the habitats you want to live in.//   

       That can happen. Unfortunately, the more complex answer is 'it depends'. Diseases can go the other way and become more deadly. I /think/ what happens depends on how quickly the disease can spread to new hosts. If it can potentially spread very quickly, there's selection for rapid progression of the disease so it can start spreading as soon as possible - and this tends to make it more deadly. But if there's generally a long time between opportunities to infect new hosts, the selection is to keep the host alive for longer while infective, even though that means taking longer for the disease to develop.   

       //But where is that other factor of the virus mutating into a less virulent strain? Can the death rate being the same as that first death spike when we didn't have any protective measures in place be explained only by lockdowns being lifted? Maybe, but for the first spike and the last to be the same, well, I guess "disappointed" is the word I'm looking for.//   

       Well, there are many, /many/ more covid cases than there were early on in the pandemic. In ~April 2020, ~2 weeks before the peak death rate, there were these new confirmed cases per million : UK (Mar31)- 49.92 ; USA(Apr10) - 94.90
And at the jan2022 peak UK (Jan10) - 22308.74 ; USA (Jan15) - 2397.07
  

       (I've picked the highest points of the peak for deaths and the highest representative point about 2 weeks prior for cases)   

       So the data looks like this, for the USA (for these single days of the peak maximum):   

       first peak: 6.66 deaths/mil from 94.9 cases/mil ; deaths per case 0.070
recent peak: 7.74 deaths/mil from 2397.07 cases/mil ; deaths per case 0.0032
  

       So the total number of deaths overall is slightly (16%) more in the second peak, but the number of cases is over 25 times higher.   

       It wouldn't surprise me at all if these deaths were disproportionately in the older segment of the 24.5% of the population who were unvaccinated, and had also previously avoided infection.   

       //But what I'm getting at is the big picture: if we've got a less virulent strain causing as many deaths as before we had both the vaccine and at least some measure of natural immunity, where does this thing end? We know we don't have a vaccine now, in what I thought a vaccine was, something that prevents infection. So okay, we've got something that might mitigate the effects of the virus, but at some point doesn't nature kick in and get rid of a deadly virus by replacing it with one that just morphs yearly so it can stick around like the common cold?//   

       Having a vaccine against the common cold has been a dream for a long time, and now the reasons why it's not a thing are more widely known, is all.
But yes, I think as people are repeatedly exposed to covid, it will become less deadly (even more than it already has). That's what usually happens. Obviously that makes it harder to say whether the newer strains are /inherently/ less deadly.
  

       //Is this the first permanent virus in the history of evolution that's this deadly? I find that hard to believe. It's much deadlier than the common flu and now I'm watching with great interest to see how it compares to the Spanish Flu (that came from the US supposedly) to see if it's going to do what that virus did, disappear somehow, and if not, why?//   

       No, absolutely not. There are many viral diseases which are just massively more deadly!
The really deadly ones don't tend to spread, though - at least not if it's quick. But it is kind of an epidemiologists nightmare that something really infectious and lethal makes it into a population centre with good air travel links.
And for what it's worth, common flu is reasonably deadly to the old and sick - most developed places have a yearly vaccine against active strains. Here, there's going to be a booster covid vaccine for the over-50s at least this year.
Loris, Aug 01 2022
  

       Good stuff Loris, thank you.   

       Where do you think this virus came from? I’ve heard 4 theories, 3 from the CCP and one from speculation about the lab leak theory. The CCP has said 1- It’s from the wet market, 2- It’s from a farm and 3- It’s from an American military base which I gather they’ve dropped after nobody believed it. Love to get your take.   

       Also, gain of function research related or not, what are your thoughts on that? Basically creating a monster so you can fight a monster if anybody were to create a monster for some reason.
doctorremulac3, Aug 01 2022
  

       //Where do you think this virus came from, I’ve heard 4 theories, 3 from the CCP and one from speculation about the lab leak theory. The CCP has said 1- It’s from the wet market, 2- It’s from a farm and 3- It’s from an American military base which I gather they’ve dropped after nobody believed it. Love to get your take.//   

       I don't feel like I've got insider knowledge on this. Nevertheless-
I don't think the malevolent actor theories are likely... I mean, disregarding the legality of it - just ...why? What's the payoff?
Similarly, the American military base idea... I don't remember it well, and don't think I paid it much attention, but given that, my recollection is that it very much seemed like desperate and rather badly targeted propaganda.
  

       A zoonotic infection is essentially the default hypothesis. To the western mind (or at least mine), the best thing the Chinese could do would be to track down the source. And if this was really the case, they're fools for not doing so efficiently and transparently. But Chinese culture is very different, and maybe the politics of it are just unworkable given who is in charge. Attention was focused around a wet market, and how plausible the arrival of infected animals there was. I feel like- this was essentially a black-market animal bushmeat trading operation - who can say what may or may not have been there?   

       Regarding the research lab... well, I suppose it's possible that a researcher accidentally got infected with something and they infected others when they stopped off on the way home, or something like that. Lab escapes do happen. It's hard to tell when the Chinese are being secretive - but still, just because it seems suspicious doesn't mean that happened; it's kind of the nature of the reigning organisations to suppress criticism regardless of what it is.   

       If the original Covid-19 strain /was/ a lab escape, the secondary question is whether it was a 'natural' strain or had been modified (as in the sort of research you mention below). The former seems per-se plausible; workers would of necessity go out to caves and sample for viruses - with a little bad practice or bad luck one could easily get infected - given covid, perhaps without knowing.
I've not really looked into the latter, but essentially this centers on a furin cleavage site (not that I know what that is). At the time I basically ignored this because the claims didn't come with the sort of evidence I'd expect to see if they were legitimate, and instead was packaged with a load of risible garbage. If someone had a firehose pumping sewage, I wouldn't hang around forever waiting for it to change to drinking water.
Actively looking now, I found a paper (possibly the one which drew the attention of the conspiracy theorists) with a protein alignment but no DNA alignments. I might be wrong, but it seems like the DNA alignments would either have made the case significantly either more or less convincing, so their absence is suspicious. Eyeballing the entire paper, they seem to make some claims about how plausible other explanations are which I can't easily evaluate. It would take at least some days of work to get to point where I felt I had the measure of this, so I'm not doing that.
  

       //Also, gain of function research related or not, what are your thoughts on that? Basically creating a monster so you can fight a monster if anybody were to create a monster for some reason.//   

       It's not my field, so I'm not familiar with the arguments 'for', but the arguments 'against' seem pretty strong.
It seems like the sort of thing one might be able to do safely - but that's by not doing what the headline suggests. Creating a new and deadly creature(or virus...) so you can deal with that exact creature seems like a stupid thing to do, because it can easily go wrong, and that exact thing is unlikely to ever exist if you don't create it, so there's no benefit.
Creating a hopefully not-very-dangerous creature with one particular trait you want to study... well, that would make sense, particularly if the alternative is working with known dangerous creatures. Even so, you'd want safeguards, it absolutely could still be dangerous.
Loris, Aug 01 2022
  

       Hey [Loris] I really appreciate you taking the time to inform the less educated.
Voice, Aug 01 2022
  

       Yes, very much appreciated. I don’t think anybody reasonable has suggested any purposeful malevolence behind this. Starting a global pandemic attack by first attacking your own country makes about as much sense as nuking your capital city as the first target in a nuclear war. But the plausible idea that this was an accidental lab leak has to be exhaustively explored. And related or not, rules about researching dangerous techniques are nothing new. Can this be used as an opportunity to make the world a safer place? I think that should at least be discussed.   

       Hey 2 fries, where you at? This is your cocktail party, where do you weigh in on this?
doctorremulac3, Aug 01 2022
  

       The real power in this idea is the recognition that the govt is just a very small group of people, with assumed authority. They have no money, and no better rights than anyone else. Withhold taxes, even for a short period of time, and ripples would be seen through bond, and foreign exchange markets. Once people recognize this, they will reconsider their powerlessness.   

       The Gamestop debacle and the reddit investors is a good example of this - an exploited crowd that reverses the energy with unexpected effects.
xrayTed, Aug 02 2022
  

       Well said.   

       I've said that all you have to do to assume authority over people is to wear the right garb and act like you're in charge.   

       Told this story before, but one time I needed a recording of a lion roaring for my business (never mind why). I had an associate procure 3 lab coats, had our digital tape recorder with a boom mic and walked up to zoo security. Didn't lie, didn't say we were something we weren't, I just said "We're here to record the lions." The nice gentleman assumed it was approved by whoever approves lion roar recording and escorted us to the lion feeding area that isn't open to the public typically. They let the lions in and WOW! If you've never heard a lion roar close up you haven't felt primordial fear. Here's the translation: "ROARRR!" = "Hello my tasty little tidbit, you're todays lunch." Anyway, don't ask why you need a lab coat to record a lion, it's like, science 'n stuff. I think I might have had a clipboard too, those will get you into anything short of a ICBM launch silo.   

       So expand this concept to the entire population and you can rule an entire country by wearing a sparkly, non-utilitarian hat. (also known as a crown)   

       "Your majesty, the people aren't bowing to your every whim! What shall we do!" "Hmm, let's try adding more sparkly bits to my stupid hat, that should work."   

       And it did. The peasants bowed down to their king wearing his newly besparkled stupid hat and the king lived happily ever after. The end. (closes story book)   

       Okay, story time's over, get back to work peasants!
doctorremulac3, Aug 02 2022
  

       //This is your cocktail party, where do you weigh in on this?//   

       Sorry. This long weekend is the busiest this place gets during the tourist season, we swell from 1200 residents to more than 30,000 for about three months every year. Our RV park was built before zoning and so is grandfather claused in, but can not be changed without rezoning. So I am the only maintenance person trying to service 50 amp RV's in a 30 and 15 amp park built in the 80's. Since I am also the only plumber, groundskeeper, wood splitter, security guard, etc... I don't get much sleep right now and am having a hard time keeping from nodding off after even a few minutes staring at a screen.
Just can't focus right now.
  

       I hear ya brother. Hope you get a break.
doctorremulac3, Aug 02 2022
  

       sadly, I look at a post like this and the thread that follows, and I realize I'm disconnecting from the HB more and more. The angels have ran out of room on their pin :(
theircompetitor, Aug 02 2022
  

       Did you read towards the end? It took a 180 degree turn from confrontational and finger pointy to very interesting. Read Loris' answering some of my questions about this Covid thing. You could almost picture us with our brandy snifters and ascots.
doctorremulac3, Aug 02 2022
  

       Have you considered joining the Rhinoceros Party?
RayfordSteele, Aug 03 2022
  

       I don't want to join any political party. They're all nuts.
doctorremulac3, Aug 03 2022
  

       What is this idea about? What does the title mean?   

       How: the method by which something is done.
Bout: a single round of a fight, one end of a violin, etc.
No: possibly a typo for "now", the present time.
  

       Still can't make sense of it. And the comments don't help much to be honest.   

       Does anyone have a paper-bag sizing chart?
pocmloc, Aug 03 2022
  

       I, for one, find the irony mildly amusing that 2 fries is ranting about rebellion and the doings of his Canadian government in a state that still calls itself British Columbia, of all things.   

       I guess in America, we wanted our own independence but couldn't be arsed to change place names from Oxford, or New York, to something slightly original.
RayfordSteele, Aug 03 2022
  

       There's a village in Eastern Ukraine called New York. I think the inhabitants chose that name to replace the former, communist name with one that was, in their understanding, as un-communist as possible.   

       <edit>Well, not exactly - Wikipedia tells me the story is more complicated than that.</edit>
pertinax, Aug 05 2022
  

       That "New York" has been on the war's frontline in Donbas. You wonder if the "York" is, as usual, from England, since the Donbas metalworks were founded by Englishmen.
4and20, Aug 05 2022
  

       sp. Welshmen
pertinax, Aug 05 2022
  

       Good thing [8th] is no longer with us or we'd now be subjected to an extended rant about Welshmen finding things.
pocmloc, Aug 05 2022
  

       We need a virtual 8th to fill in for him.
doctorremulac3, Aug 05 2022
  

       Okay!   

       Couple of nights of sleep works wonders. You guys are... verbose.   

       //And yes, maybe you can argue that there's been a cover-up. But that's a) ridiculous, given the scale and number of people who would have to be involved, b) unnecessary, given that we already have an explanation for the excess deaths.//   

       I would argue that the scale of the con and how unimaginably large the number of people involved and it's unbelievability was taken directly into account and very much counted upon.
The explanation for excess deaths is horseshit.
Sudden Adult Death Syndrome?
Please...
  

       //Funny how "being careful with health" results in healthier people.//   

       Funny how being careful with which published results are released determines who died from what.   

       //I don't think the malevolent actor theories are likely... I mean, disregarding the legality of it - just ...why? What's the payoff?//   

       Why absolute medical subjugation of every person on the planet of course.
You can not question citizen! Do you have the credentials to do so! No. No you don't. 'We' have not given them to you.
Get back in line.
  

       //A zoonotic infection is essentially the default hypothesis. To the western mind (or at least mine), the best thing the Chinese could do would be to track down the source. And if this was really the case, they're fools for not doing so efficiently and transparently.//   

       Agreed. Nothing but fuckery from that end.   

       //Actively looking now, I found a paper (possibly the one which drew the attention of the conspiracy theorists) with a protein alignment but no DNA alignments. I might be wrong, but it seems like the DNA alignments would either have made the case significantly either more or less convincing, so their absence is suspicious.//   

       Ya think?
One of these days the term 'conspiracy theorist' will lose its negative connotation. I propose the new term 'realist'.
  

       //The angels have ran out of room on their pin//   

       Not bloody likely.   

       Is this Occam's weed-whacker?
pocmloc, Aug 06 2022
  

       It's the parsimoniest form of protest.   

       //Couple of nights of sleep works wonders. You guys are... verbose.//   

       Sorry about that.   

       ////And yes, maybe you can argue that there's been a cover-up. But that's a) ridiculous, given the scale and number of people who would have to be involved, b) unnecessary, given that we already have an explanation for the excess deaths.////   

       //I would argue that the scale of the con and how unimaginably large the number of people involved and it's unbelievability was taken directly into account and very much counted upon.
The explanation for excess deaths is horseshit.
Sudden Adult Death Syndrome?
Please...//
  

       I feel that I don't know what you're saying here; maybe your local news made claims I've not heard or something.
It seems like just the phrase "Sudden Adult Death Syndrome" seems like it should be self-explanatory, but I had to google it. A recent Fullfact article says an instagram post claimed that covid vaccine-caused deaths are mislabeled as that, but there was no evidence for that, and indeed analysis found no change in the rate of such deaths.
  

       It would really help to know:
What you think the conspiracy is exactly. That is:
a) What is it for, and who is the organising group
So you mentioned "absolute medical subjugation of every person on the planet" - is that the best description of what you think is the goal? What does that entail, exactly? Vaccination inserts a microchip? Vaccination does nothing, but people are scared and cowed into submission for future use? If not, what?
  

       b) Who is 'in on it' - as lists or groups. So for example, which of these groups are 'in on it' - politicians who arranged funding to develop vaccines; vaccine development or production company management; vaccine research scientists; clinical researchers performing vaccination trials; medical personnel performing vaccinations; medical personnel caring for covid patients; expert medical data analysts; <any other important groups you would consider>   

       .   

       //Ya think?//   

       I think you misunderstand my implication. Not including relevant data makes a source less convincing.
So I am less persuaded by their argument than perhaps I could have been.
I should mention, because it's been bugging me - maybe that's nothing. It just seems like an analysis I'd have done to back up my case, if I were writing that paper. There may be a good reason for for not doing so. Most likely it's just that my idea of how to do things differs from theirs.
But my thought is that if you're claiming that an important change was genetically engineered (as opposed to a naturally occurring recombination with another virus during co-infection), it really makes sense to look at the nucleotide sequences, which yields extra information over the protein sequence.
Loris, Aug 06 2022
  

       Let me ask you what's probably a virology 1.01 question that they teach day 1 in the school that's only a half day where they get ice cream at the end: What are processes that can happen naturally, specifically at say, a wet market or a farm, that can't be duplicated, and more importantly, accelerated or manipulated in the lab?   

       Here's what I'd do for instance if I had a lab coat: Take a bunch of animals, expose them to various cooties, take the ones that died the best, take those heebie jeebies, slap 'em around with various thingamabobs, do round two, take the bugaboos from the deadest rats from that round, continue doing that elimination tournament until I've got a winner, and by winner I mean something that can kill enough millions of people to win me a Nobel prize.   

       Is this anywhere near being close to proximity of something that can be done in the lab? And what are the impediments to me taking whatever happens in a wet market, putting on a lab coat on and doing that exact same thing, only wearing a lab coat?   

       Keep in mind, I know only two things about virology: jack and squat, so your patience is appreciated. My cousin owns a company that actually creates and manufactures vaccines, albeit for the farm industry, but I think they still wear lab coats. He's given me the basic rundown but I've got a lot to learn and I do appreciate your sharing info with us.   

       It is pretty fascinating.
doctorremulac3, Aug 06 2022
  

       //Sorry about that.//   

       Nothing to apologize for, I was just too tired to be able to pay attention.   

       //I feel that I don't know what you're saying here; maybe your local news made claims I've not heard or something.//   

       Well... see, I'm just going to condense all of the bullet points and questions you just asked into that one above while trying to answer them all as succinctly as I can.   

       Some folks are born evil and some descend to that level. They learn to hide in the shadows.
They always try to attain power to feed their insecurities. "They" want slaves.
Cyclically throughout history they get their way for a bit and cast enough shadows that they no longer need to hide, but they are cocky sons of bitches and always tip their hand prematurely assuming it's on lock-down.
  

       It's not even a secret anymore.
The Wurld Ecuntnomic Fukwads have spelled out exactly how to create and use a pandemic to institute a new world order.
They openly brag about having our Prime Minister in their pocket as a past Future Junior Leader as well as bragging about having the support of more than half of congress in North America and other countries.
  

       Things 'were' proceeding like clockwork before us canucks decided it was time for a little chat.   

       "They" can kiss our hairy tan-less asses.   

       As for proof... I've been lead down the garden path before. I recognize it. I ain't doing it again and nobody can make me.   

       You go ahead and wait for proof. I'm not stopping you.   

       //What are processes that can happen naturally, specifically at say, a wet market or a farm, that can't be duplicated, and more importantly, accelerated or manipulated in the lab?//   

       Excellent question. In the limit, with enough funding) of course it's the other way around - that is, the lab plus an incorporated 'pathogen generating environment' has more options than the environment alone.
In practice, though, experimental work has limitations in terms of funding, space, personnel etc, so if you've got a farm, say, it's relatively small, or 'experimental scale'. This tends to become more significant when you're working with pathogens - even if (as an evil organisation) you don't care about safety very much, most scientists arn't going to be eager to expose themselves to potentially lethal diseases, and may find ways to sabotage your experiment. This doesn't really affect lax safety standards if you're trying to research something utilitarian, most people will happily go along without protections if they think it's not a concern.
But if you're explicitly trying to engineer a pathogen, people are going to ask awkward questions.
So the upshot of this is that tinkering with a 'cold virus' to see what happens may have very lax safety standards in places where that's socially acceptable. But if your stated aim is to engineer a novel bioweapon... well, you're rather more restricted.
(I'm coming back to this below.)
  

       //Here's what I'd do for instance if I had a lab coat: Take a bunch of animals, expose them to various cooties, take the ones that died the best, take those heebie jeebies, slap 'em around with various thingamabobs, do round two, take the bugaboos from the deadest rats from that round, continue doing that elimination tournament until I've got a winner, and by winner I mean something that can kill enough millions of people to win me a Nobel prize.//   

       Two things - why bother to do that in a lab, when you've got a perfectly good horrible intensive farms and wet markets doing it for free? I suppose you can be cynical and argue that was the plan all along... but it honestly doesn't seem like a particularly /good/ plan.
Secondly, there is no Nobel prize for biology, so you'd need to fudge it and get one for chemistry or world peace or literature or something. And I think killing millions isn't generally what they're looking for.
  

       Co-infecting an organism with two different viruses and seeing if they recombine seems like a perfectly good experiment, and one you could do in the lab. You could even scale up and do it with a number of animals. But you're very much limited by lab space, equipment and analysis time. This would be interesting, and probably it's been tried, to see how often recombination happens. I'd be surprised if it hadn't. But it's only ever going to be a tiny fraction of the natural events in the environment. When you're looking for very rare events, this matters a lot.   

       So the only thing you'd have going for you here would be to have two pathogens which rarely met each other, but which you thought could productively recombine, and then do that specifically. But in that case, if what you want to study is the result (rather than the chance of it happening), there are easier ways to get the product you want.
So generally, with a lab you're using a different approach, and manipulating the genome in a very specific way. Mostly, this is going to have differences in how this looks genetically, even if the actual changes are introduced 'scarlessly'. Do you remember the anthrax postal terrorism a few years ago? The feds were able to track down exactly who was responsible, because the genome sequence of the posted anthrax almost exactly matched his lab stock. You could do the same thing with SARS-CoV2 and the lab stocks. There wasn't a smoking gun found for that. You can certainly argue that they did it, but successfully covered it up. But the evidence given doesn't seem to fit that, it's more like the lab had some somewhat related viruses (because looking at viruses was actually their job) and when that got linked by conspiracy theorists, maybe a few people in power around the chinese state got skittish and thought it would be a good idea to hide that just in case, because it's a police state and that's what they do to everything by default.
  

       2fries, I have to move on now but I do intend to come back and respond to you later.
Loris, Aug 07 2022
  

       Great stuff Loris, thank you.   

       I don't have enough info on this particular plague to even venture a guess as to the roots of its genesis, but if I were forced to come up with some possibilities I'd throw out two. One, that it was generated the same way the Spanish Flu and other plagues were, naturally occurring zoonotic transmission via contact with animals, the other being an accidental leak from a lab doing gain of function research, either with good intentions for coming up with treatments, or for biowarfare research, although the two aren't mutually exclusive.   

       Now if a lab is doing gain of function research, it could be, like I said before, to create a monster so they could fight a monster if a monster should ever be created for some reason, or for bioweapons research for which there might be international treaty prohibitions, but I very much doubt the CCP spends a lot of time wringing its hands worrying about what the world thinks.   

       True or not, supposedly an international agency did a report on the Wuhan lab and reported very bad safety measures. If that's not true I haven't seen anybody debunk it. Does it mean that's where this plague came from? Not necessarily, but It does mean that possibility needs to be explored. Unfortunately, there's politics and money involved and there are allegations that this was funded, although possibly accidentally, by Fauchi's team.   

       Now his team might not have wanted this specific disaster path funded, but did they have careful oversight of their funding meant to prevent a horrible disaster? Dunno. When asked he gave a straw man answer that I won't get into, but the question about if this might have been somehow associated with his funding wasn't properly asked. He said only that he didn't fund gain of function research, I would have said "Might they have taken your funding and gone on a different path with it? One that may have resulted in this disaster?" The other person from his organization releases a very straw man argument statement as well. So if somebody's asked "Did you eat all the cookies in the cookie jar?" and they answer "I have conclusive proof that the kitchen has never had so many cookies in it." you can guess something's up. Especially if they get pissy about being asked.   

       Now I haven't heard anybody suggest this was a purposeful bioweapons attack, that doesn't really make a lot of sense so well let that one go, but it seems not impossible that this might have been a gain of function research program either to advance medical treatment technology, or create a bioweapon for possible use in war, (or both) that got loose.   

       Unfortunately we have a two view society, meaning you get sold two things you are allowed to think, the right wing thing and the left wing thing. The right says this was possibly a lab leak, the left says it wasn't because the CCP would never do such a thing. The universe unfortunately isn't this weird entity that gives you a binary choice menu for your preferred reality. There's only the truth and everything else.   

       I'm unfortunately not smart enough to always know the truth, so I ask questions until things at least fall into focus enough to venture a guess, but I will say this, I'm not crazy about how hard it is to get answers to questions about this thing and doubly concerned when hearing from some agencies and governments that asking questions is a bad thing. That only heightens my suspicions that somebody screwed up.   

       But, hey, maybe somebody just bit the head off a sick bat Ozzy style and there's nothing to see here folks. In the case disregard, but I do wonder why nobody has suggested working on safety measures for wet markets since supposedly those things have killed millions of people across the planet. Almost like nobody really believes that.   

       Just sayin'.
doctorremulac3, Aug 07 2022
  

       //Well... see, I'm just going to condense all of the bullet points and questions you just asked into that one above while trying to answer them all as succinctly as I can.//   

       Okay.   

       //Some folks are born evil and some descend to that level. They learn to hide in the shadows.
They always try to attain power to feed their insecurities. "They" want slaves.
Cyclically throughout history they get their way for a bit and cast enough shadows that they no longer need to hide, but they are cocky sons of bitches and always tip their hand prematurely assuming it's on lock-down.
  

       It's not even a secret anymore.
The Wurld Ecuntnomic Fukwads have spelled out exactly how to create and use a pandemic to institute a new world order.
They openly brag about having our Prime Minister in their pocket as a past Future Junior Leader as well as bragging about having the support of more than half of congress in North America and other countries.//
  

       I do feel like I missed a memo somewhere.
The World Economic Forum? The lobbyist organisation with 1000-odd member companies of over 5 billion dollar turnover? Well, I'm sure it has some clout, and things like corporate capture and undemocratic decision-making are something to keep an eye on, but like... it's not in my premier league of things to worry about.
But anyway, it seems like you think that the WEF are some sort of shadowy organisation of elites, and they're the ones who have organised the pandemic itself, and the pandemic response including as a crucial part covid vaccines.
  

       I don't agree with this, because the larger a conspiracy gets, the harder it is to keep secret.
I'm going to focus on the pandemic response, because it's clear there is some uncertainty of the pandemic's origin. I don't discount the possibility of a 'lab escape' (virus wild-type or modified) or at least researchers being involved - but maintain that in that event, it's likely to have been accidental.
a) There are multiple unrelated and distinct vaccines. Are they /all/ suspect? They were under the jurisdiction of multiple countries, including USA, Europe/UK, China, Russia. So the WEF have politicians in hand in all those places? We know what large-scale multi-national organisations look like, and they're not /renown/ for unanimous, quick response.
b) Of the groups of people I listed, people in any of those groups excluding the first and last - (so vaccine development or production company management; vaccine research scientists; clinical researchers performing vaccination trials; medical personnel performing vaccinations; medical personnel caring for covid patients; expert medical data analysts - and probably other groups) would be well-placed to identify a problem with the vaccines. Those in the west would be well-placed to be whistle-blowers. But that's not what we see. What we see instead is a million false claims from people who don't understand science or terminology (e.g. these guys were working on spike protein beforehand, therefore conspiracy!) or statistics (e.g. someone died after getting vaccinated, therefore the vaccine killed them, therefore conspiracy!) or have a stake in propagating FUD.
  

       //You go ahead and wait for proof. I'm not stopping you.//   

       I don't need proof. I'll entertain the notion of anything the data doesn't contradict.
Loris, Aug 07 2022
  

       //Now I haven't heard anybody suggest this was a purposeful bioweapons attack, that doesn't really make a lot of sense so well let that one go, but it seems not impossible that this might have been a gain of function research program either to advance medical treatment technology, or create a bioweapon for possible use in war, (or both) that got loose.//   

       I'd like to point out that 2fries does seem to be suggesting that this was a deliberate release with the intent of causing a pandemic:
//The Wurld Ecuntnomic Fukwads have spelled out exactly how to create and use a pandemic to institute a new world order.//
  

       I agree that it doesn't seem like it would be a great play.   

       //Unfortunately we have a two view society, meaning you get sold two things you are allowed to think, the right wing thing and the left wing thing. The right says this was possibly a lab leak, the left says it wasn't because the CCP would never do such a thing.//   

       I don't really get this, but I find politics in general to be irritating.   

       //The universe unfortunately isn't this weird entity that gives you a binary choice menu for your preferred reality. There's only the truth and everything else.//   

       Reality is actually worse than that. There's things which are true, and known. There's things which are true, but we don't know, yet. Then there are things which are true, but it's impossible to know for sure.   

         

       // In the case disregard, but I do wonder why nobody has suggested working on safety measures for wet markets since supposedly those things have killed millions of people across the planet. Almost like nobody really believes that.//   

       It's my understanding that a lot of the activity in the wet markets is already illegal, so just enforcing the law might be a start.
Loris, Aug 07 2022
  

       Well, purposefully released attack or not, the WEF has made it clear they intend to use this to expand their power, they specifically said that, so 2 fries is correct there.   

       And cutting to the chase, if the WEF ever declares sovereignty over my country, I’ll be asking to see the appropriate paperwork such as weaponry, attack vectors, control over means of production, communication etc. If they don’t have any of those made clear I’ll point out that the British already tried this and THEY at least had their paperwork in order.
doctorremulac3, Aug 07 2022
  

       Well, in that case i accuse.... NetFlix!
Loris, Aug 07 2022
  

       Agreed.
doctorremulac3, Aug 07 2022
  

       //He said only that he didn't fund gain of function research//   

       I've got rather something to add here.   

       I work in some rather visible government-funded projects. How the specific funding process works includes a rather tedious accounting method of what specific projects get exactly how much money and what gets billed against what. Things you don't get funded for don't get worked on, by law. I cannot even share basic material resources like plywood between one project and another without a major headache because of these types of restrictions. All of these dollars and cents are reported back. This is the culture in which Fauci's programs have to operate as well.   

       So Fauci is saying that his funding is devoted towards the resources he needs for X, for the most part that funding will be consumed by X, because that's how Congress likes to see it and hear it. This isn't to say that mischarging doesn't happen or that government-funded research can't be snooped on or borrowed or stolen, but it is to say that Fauci's funding answer isn't just off-hand avoidance. It's a polite and formal way to say 'no, you dolt.'   

       2f, you're missing an equally-likely possibility that Loris is one of 'them' who is being paid handsomely to throw you off the scent. Given the evidence you've supplied thus far, (which is none), it is just as valid as any else of your ramblings. But I don't think you believe that.   

       Explore why that is, and then potentially apply that to other human beings whom you might be suspicious of for no other reason than your lack of contact with them and far-off judgment of their motivations based on some 30 second TV clips and paranoia.
RayfordSteele, Aug 08 2022
  

       //So Fauci is saying that his funding is devoted towards the resources he needs for X, for the most part that funding will be consumed by X, because that's how Congress likes to see it and hear it. This isn't to say that mischarging doesn't happen or that government-funded research can't be snooped on or borrowed or stolen, but it is to say that Fauci's funding answer isn't just off-hand avoidance. It's a polite and formal way to say 'no, you dolt.'//   

       So if I fund a day camp in Aucshwitz in 1943 to feature hiking, finger painting, macramé etc. and don't pay attention to what they're doing with the money then somebody asks about it they're a dolt? Is it doltish to ask him to assist in finding out if this lab he funded used that funding to get millions of people killed across the globe? I don't care if he thought he was paying to have new drinking fountains put in, if that's the case, assist with the investigation of his misdirected funding. If he got robbed, and the money was spent to kill millions of people, why doesn't he want that investigated?   

       The message I get is "Don't ask questions, you might get called a dolt." He admitted the lab might be the source of this plague, so okay, he's got a connection, maybe it was just putting a candy machine in the lobby, but is he willing to assist in the investigation or just call people who ask questions dolts? Calling those who ask questions dolts would be the number one reason for me to start investigating HIM.   

       Like I've said before, the questions around this pandemic seem to boil down to left vs right, take your pick, like absolutely every other challenge we face in our world. Hell of a way to do things.   

       Let me ask you this, do you want that lab investigated? Your guy said it might have come from there so what do we do with that information? I'll respect your answer but I'm genuinely curious. And I'm aware of all the studies at the beginning that said it wasn't from the lab, but this was before Fauci said it still might have been, so let's follow his lead no? And let me be clear, if this came from a wet market, a toilet seat or ancient alien spores from a meteorite, that needs to be addressed. Let's find out for sure, that's all I'm suggesting.
doctorremulac3, Aug 08 2022
  

       You're missing the point. The point is that it's Congress's job to ask the annoying, doltish questions because that helps keep the guide rails up, and politics takes the doltish questions and makes theatre out of them. Being questioned by certain members of Congress is like being audited by an IRS agent whose line of questioning has been put together by a group of toddlers who are underqualified to ask relevant scientific questions or sometimes even how you like your burger cooked, but it's how it is. We have to be happy that someone has the job of asking the dumb questions as well as the smart ones. Anyone who can put up with answering them with patience for decades as Dr. Fauci has has my respect.   

       Fauci admitted that it's not out of the realm of the theoretically possible that the lab was the source. But that's a far cry from remotely likely. The lab investigation would be mostly political theatre for the right to make hay and not much more. There are better expenditures and more likely candidates that are a better use of resources. Investigate it if it satisfies you but it seems to me that the steaming pile of batshit that is a wet market is a more likely candidate to get sick from than an almost clean clean-room.   

       The far right has not had the best track record over the past, say, 20 years of my life in terms of asking good questions and handling the basic facts. These days they're manipulated by con artists for dollars and attention and even went as far as putting said nutjobs into the White House as staff advisors. I'm only going to go so far in entertaining their latest delusion.   

       Besides, Loris already seemingly went down that path with the DNA commentary.   

       Given Dr. Fauci's record, I am not in the least bit concerned with his judgment in terms of what he does with our money. You're talking about a highly respected and most often academically-cited scientist who had the most impact in combating AIDS and was awarded the Medal of Freedom. Can you find any indicator in his past that would lead you to suspicion that he's suddenly been corrupted from his decades of life-saving work at various levels towards either having no controlling oversight over the labs he funds or turning into some nefarious biological terrorist overnight? Like I said, he's been around awhile. Why didn't he do that back in the 80's or sometime sooner? He's a bit past the point in age where the doomsday ISIS zealots form.   

       I get it. Mistrust is easy as it gets us off the hook in case someone turns out to be a fuckwad. Trust is hard. Especially over long distances and the more distant degrees from Kevin Bacon. But it's just as necessary in civil society.   

       And I've said it before. I'll say it again. Conspiracies are for the lazy-minded.
RayfordSteele, Aug 08 2022
  

       //But anyway, it seems like you think that the WEF are some sort of shadowy organisation of elites, and they're the ones who have organised the pandemic itself, and the pandemic response including as a crucial part covid vaccines.//   

       Yep, we should be dragging them through the streets kicking and screaming.
I also think we need to stop calling these shots vaccines. Vaccines confer immunity. These injections do not and are therefore not vaccines.
The power which world governments have given themselves to force citizens to take these injections and fuck over our lives is based on the previous definition of the word 'vaccine' which was suspiciously changed just prior to the plandemic.
Anyone with medical and scientific credentials not on board with this charade were fired for non conformity.
We have a registered nurse doing laundry and room cleaning because she is not allowed to return to her profession without compliance by taking this non-vaccine.
Unvaccinated people are still segregated and not allowed to travel even though it has been determined that all people are potential carriers of this virus.
  

       This shit show has been a con from day one.
Those still on board with it are paving the way for totalitarianism.
  

       //it seems to me that the steaming pile of batshit that is a wet market is a more likely candidate to get sick from than an almost clean clean-room.//   

       ... doing gain of function research. And almost clean isn't clean when it comes to dangerous pathogens.   

       But okay, I have your answer. Fauci's wrong in saying it might be from the Wuhan lab and that it should be investigated further. Got ya.   

       Lots of insults and anger though, not sure that helps. Might want to direct that at Fauchi.
doctorremulac3, Aug 08 2022
  

       If you would like to let Dr. Fauci speak for himself, I believe at many times he said that it's most likely from the wild. Being one of the most decorated virologists in the world, his opinion *does* carry *some* weight.   

       //I also think we need to stop calling these shots vaccines. Vaccines confer immunity. These injections do not and are therefore not vaccines.//   

       Do you think that Dr. Fauci, more than likely visited the Wuhan lab a few times? Do you think that he could possibly pick up on what they might be researching while there? Give the man a little credit.   

       And 2f, people who have studied this shit more than you or I have disabused you of this line before. It's more of an indication of your unwillingness to accept it at this point than of anything else. When people are unwilling to listen, yes, the insults start to come out. Use that incredible brain you claim to have and learn it.   

       //and almost clean isn't clean when it comes to dangerous pathogens.//   

       Count the dangerous pathogens swarming around in any back alley wet market, that have all the food, water, and shelter they need to reproduce and evolve. I'll wait.   

       I find it ironic that in a post so concerned about saving tax dollars and trimming government that the author and supporters suggest unending investigations into proving out a negative.
RayfordSteele, Aug 08 2022
  

       It was sold as a preventative primarly by politicians I believe, not sure what the companies that made them said but turns out it's more of a palliative or theraputic that mitigates the effects rather being a total preventative which is fine. Glad to have it, it stimulates the body's immune system and we had hopes it would stop the pandemic but didn't turn out that way. But gotta admit, it was over sold by some people.   

       I'm pro vax personally, but it's okay to point out its shortcomings. We need to do that with all technologies, that's how we improve them.
doctorremulac3, Aug 08 2022
  

       //Count the dangerous pathogens swarming around in any back alley wet market, that have all the food, water, and shelter they need to reproduce and evolve. I'll wait.//   

       Might be waiting a while. So you want me to fly to China and count the dangerous pathogens in a back alley and if I don't, the CCP is free from blame? Do I need to fly to the Moon and take samples to verify it's not made from green cheese? Gotta check my air miles, might be a little short.   

       By the way, if it came from a wet market, it didn't come from a back alley, it was a zoonotic infection passed from an animal or animals being sold as food to humans. As far as I know you're the first person to suggest Covid came from a mud puddle in a back alley.
doctorremulac3, Aug 08 2022
  

       //And 2f, people who have studied this shit more than you or I have disabused you of this line before. It's more of an indication of your unwillingness to accept it at this point than of anything else. When people are unwilling to listen, yes, the insults start to come out. Use that incredible brain you claim to have and learn it.//   

       I am using it. Those learned folks disabusing me have not studied con-men and Stockholm syndrome more than I have and are unwilling to listen.   

       Am I mistaken in pointing out that the definition of the word 'vaccine' was changed just before the pandemic?
Am I mistaken in pointing out that the WEF laid out exactly how to use a pandemic to gain power?
Am I mistaken in pointing out that every single person with credentials and a dissenting opinion not fired from their professions?
  

       No. No I am not mistaken.   

       Perhaps folks have been conditioned to insult anyone questioning authority.
They trust in it. I never have trusted in it. I've seen authority being abused since childhood. This is nothing new.
  

       //those learned folks disabusing me//   

       Which one? Maxwell or Loris? Be specific now.   

       doc, it's not hard to mimic the conditions of a wet market. Trek to a humid area. Perhaps northern Louisiana or Southern Florida might be to your liking. Preferably someplace with bats and bugs flying around. Find a few animals. Slaughter them. Let them sit out in the sun for a few hours. Coronaviruses are a large happy family with lots of cousins that hang around.   

       Or you could simply open a biology textbook and look at how many billions of viruses, bacteria, and such lie about in such conditions and how often on average they evolve. Someone out there has already done the work and even wrote it down.
RayfordSteele, Aug 08 2022
  

       Your assertion that clean, uninfected dead animals were brought to a wet market where unsanitary conditions caused their corpses to somehow catch this virus that was just hiding in mud puddles at those wet markets is, well, I'll just call it a new perspective and leave it at that.   

       So although this started out as a fascinating conversation, at this point I'm not getting anything useful out of it and since the tone has turned decidedly testy to say the least, I'm moving on.   

       Sorry to have angered you.
doctorremulac3, Aug 08 2022
  

       My assertion is not that clean, uninfected animals were brought to a market that was then dirty.   

       My assertion is that neither the market nor the animals were ever that clean nor potentially even dead. These are open-air markets with all of the smells of live animals and bats and birds and insects galore.   

       Glad that you're moving on. So am I.
RayfordSteele, Aug 08 2022
  

       ////those learned folks disabusing me////   

       //Which one? Maxwell or Loris? Be specific now.//   

       You did not specify.
You also answered not a single question about where I am mistaken on any of the points I've made.
The garden path is both wide and slippery and most folks seem to like the banana peel shoes our governments are handing around.
I don't. So I'll just be over there in my steel toed boots figuring out ways to keep a large group of humans from starving and freezing to death if and when the grid goes black.
If I'm wasting my time we can have a good laugh about it later, and if I'm not wasting my time then we will be far too busy to laugh at the deceased.
  

       When the zombie apocalypse happens I'll be the one stumbling along and looking for a meal.
Voice, Aug 08 2022
  

       How come zombies don't eat each other?   

       Guess dinner's gotta be fresh.
doctorremulac3, Aug 08 2022
  

       <-Zombway->   

       -Eat Flesh.   

       I think that's worthy of an idea post.   

       At least a meme.
doctorremulac3, Aug 08 2022
  

       I'm surprised their ad team didn't pick it up for a halloween campaign.
It would make for some extremely funny commercials.
<heavy sigh>
  

       Remember the 80's when they tried to make commercials that made your beverage shoot out your nose?   

       <camera pans slowly from left to right>
<Zombie #1 at table holding foot long sub... with actual foot>
"Ahhhhgughh fooooot loooooon..."
<jaw falls off>
<Zombie #2 at table grabs sub>
"Ahhhhgughh fooooot looooooon"
<jaw falls off>
<undead hand reaches for sub...>
<-Zombway->
Eat Flesh.
<roll credits>
  

       <collect royalties>   

       You're simply wrong in your assessment in that updating a definition is some nefarious thing and misses the subtle issues like obvious context. It's a nothingburger postulated by one Thomas Massie, who despite his degree excels at saying dumb things to rile people up. I believe this topic has been touched before elsewhere. It apparently didn't sink in.   

       Vaccines have never been 100% effective, which you should know.
RayfordSteele, Aug 08 2022
  

       // If I'm wasting my time we can have a good laugh about it later //   

       Avoid the rush, laugh now.
a1, Aug 08 2022
  

       Bravo 2 fries. Made me smile anyway.
doctorremulac3, Aug 08 2022
  

       //Vaccines have never been 100% effective, which you should know.//   

       Again with the twisty words. Vaccines have never been 100% effective, (on a certain percentage of a population).
They are effective and render immunity to the large percentage they are effective for. Hence the previous definition of the word Vaccine.
  

       The sweeping governmental powers granted to that previous definition now control our lives planet wide. Anyone not on board loses their career.
This virus is a warning that something much much worse can be released unless we conform.
The art of war is to win a war without a fight.
  

       Nothing nefarious there at all...
  

       Loris, I was looking at how many wet markets there are in China, about 40,000, and was struck by what a coincidence it was that an institute of virology that studies bat viruses just happened to be 40 minutes away from this particular wet market outbreak point.   

       I'm also wondering what other gathering points where people gather face to face by the hundreds might be in that area. Lab leak spread through workers going to the market a possibility? I read that 1 out of 3 Chinese go to wet markets regularly, presumably including lab workers. Wouldn't be worth considering if it weren't for that one in forty thousand lab/wet market proximity coincidence. Of all the wet markets that sell bats and pangolins, why just the one that happens to be by a lab that studies bat viruses? I know coincidences happen but that's a pretty big one.   

       Do we know how sure they are it was a bat / pangolin host, and can we find out what other markets sell bat / pangolin meat? Because if that market was unique in selling those animals that would cancel out the 1 of 40,000 wet markets being a 40 minute drive away from the bat virus study lab coincidence.   

       Thoughts? (I understand if you’re done with this subject, it has gotten unnecessarily nasty which is unfortunate since it’s just an interesting subject in my opinion.)
doctorremulac3, Aug 09 2022
  

       Not sure if you're being sarcastic, but more wet markets make it less of a coincidence one will be near an arbitrary lab.
Voice, Aug 09 2022
  

       No, 40,000 wet markets, only one has a Covid outbreak, it just happens to be by a lab where they study bat viruses. That's a one in forty thousand chance.   

       You're thinking if they ALL had a Covid outbreak that wouldn't be a coincidence, but only one did so that's a 1 in 40,000 coincidence multiplied by however many virus labs are studying bat viruses. If there are ten labs, it's 1 in 4,000, one hundred labs it's 1 in 400.   

       But I don't know, how many virus study facilities are in China studying bat viruses? If there's 40,000, please disregard my assertion that it's a coincidence.   

       And back to the question, what was special about that wet market? How common is bat / pangolin pizza or whatever in Chinese wet markets? If half of them sell those the odds change again, but either way, why just that market? If that's the only market selling those things, it's a coincidence, but probably not big enough to consider. If they all deal in the same products that caused a pandemic, what caused that place to be the epicenter and not one of the other 40,000 wet markets?   

       Keep in mind, I'm not asserting anything, I'm just asking. Some people know for sure where this came from, I'm not one of them.
doctorremulac3, Aug 09 2022
  

       Anyone here ever look into Peter Daszak, Ecohealth Alliance, and other facets of the coincidence?
xrayTed, Aug 09 2022
  

       //Some people know for sure//   

       That's not necessarily true. It would be true if the virus were created intentionally, but if it were a lab accident, anyone involved ... might have a hunch, but might choose not to know.   

       For example, if you'd forgotten to sterilize your lab coat one evening ... would you want that investigated? You might be curious, but you might also be keen that no-one should find out (not even you), especially if you lived under a regime that preferred scapegoating to respecting human rights. After all, your not- quite- perfectly- clean white coat *might* have had nothing to do with it.   

       And obviously, if it was a bat, only the bat knows, and it's not talking. Because someone ate it.   

       The rest of us have to make do with probabilities.
pertinax, Aug 09 2022
  

       //Anyone here ever look into [...]//   

       Yes - our friend [bigsleep] did. But then, regrettably, he left, because he was unable to convince the rest of us.
pertinax, Aug 09 2022
  

       //Some people know for sure//   

       //That's not necessarily true.//   

       I was being sarcastic, referring to the winged monkeys who blindly believe anything the CCP puts out, but come to think of it, you're right.   

       The people who worked at that lab probably know one way or another. If it was a lab leak, they'd presumably have petri dishes or whatever they use full of the exact matching virus, and they would have probably talked about it over lunch. "Hey, hear what Bob did? Released a global pandemic. That Bob, I told him to wash his hands." (The character's names in this skit were modified to be politically correct)   

       //And obviously, if it was a bat, only the bat knows, and it's not talking. Because someone ate it.//   

       Bats always look like they're up to no good.   

       //Anyone here ever look into [...]//   

       //Yes - our friend [bigsleep] did. But then, regrettably, he left, because he was unable to convince the rest of us.//   

       I hadn't followed that, bigsleep left because of this thing? That sucks. Let me guess, people started calling him names for daring to question the integrity of the glorious CCP? (Blessed be the cash flow from their slave labor camps.)
doctorremulac3, Aug 09 2022
  

       No, that wasn't how it happened.
pertinax, Aug 09 2022
  

       What happened? Can we get him back?
doctorremulac3, Aug 09 2022
  

       I'm not sure exactly, but it involved him repeatedly deleting his own annotations. He seemed quite distressed.
pertinax, Aug 09 2022
  

       Huh. Bummer. I liked the guy.
doctorremulac3, Aug 09 2022
  

       ^ ditto   

       Is anyone shocked that Chinese wetmarkets and new viruses go on unabated? [link]
4and20, Aug 10 2022
  

       Thank you for posting that 4, I know we've disagreed about stuff in the past but can we all come together and look at this obvious threat to world health? It's either a lab leak or a wet market propagation, okay, let's start at that point of agreement.   

       So why are the wet markets with no health measures still open? I understand they've been around forever and it's a cultural thing, okay, slavery used to be a cultural thing in this country. When your culture is doing something evil you change it.   

       All we're told is we're all supposed to fight among each other about stupid details while the plague factories, whatever they are, continue. Lab leak or wet market, who cares? The obvious thing to do is to take steps to make sure it doesn't happen again with EITHER.   

       For one thing, it's my understanding that a sort of symbiosis develops between humans and their farm animals where zoonotic infections are adjusted to and immunity is built up in humans over the hundreds, even thousands of years that they're in proximity to each other. That's why when European farmer based societies came to the new world the viruses they carried wiped out the indigenous people who being largely hunter gathers had no such immunities. But those animals the Europeans farmed were cows, chickens, pigs, goats and sheep, a fairly narrow group. In China for some reason a premium has been put on eating "exotic" animals, throwing new food stock species into the mix on a regular basis. New exotic animals with new exotic deadly viruses.   

       Can we knock that off? How much excitement are you really getting by eating a friggin' pangolin? Get another hobby, that one might be responsible for killing millions of people.   

       Unless it's a lab leak, in which case disregard.
doctorremulac3, Aug 10 2022
  

       1. You don't have to eat the bat meat. They fly around. Bat guano and bat feet and whatever.   

       2. Viral labs go to places where interesting viruses are common. These are usually humid or semi-flooded places, like Wuhan. Not all of China has the the same biome.
RayfordSteele, Aug 11 2022
  

       I think that the proximity of the wet market in question to the caves of the bats in question carrying the virus in question would easily determine whether virus toting bats were carried that far for market... or for viral study at the facility just down the road who send people into caves to find bats carrying viruses for their research.   

       I know what my bet has thus far unwaveringly been on.   

       I looked into that and please verify this, what I saw on one site was that the bats in question were from 600 miles away. Absolutely don't vouch for anything that I read on the internet, but that's what one site said.   

       Can we determine that for sure? That's pretty important information and something the lab should be able to answer, studying bat viruses as they do.   

       And something just occurred to me, if I was a member of a group that just got accused if killing millions of people through negligence and I KNEW we didn't to it, you'd never get me off the air. My life would be devoted to saving my reputation and the reputation of my group, namely a bat virus study laboratory. It would be become my life work. All we've heard is somebody who was familiar with the lab who came over hear and said it was a leak. Lies? Okay, but where are the people from that lab that would KNOW these are lies? Why are they silent? Or is the word I'm looking for "silenced"?
doctorremulac3, Aug 12 2022
  

       The word you're looking for is 'China.' Not exactly a talkative culture with a lot of radio stations. And if you were on the air claiming you didn't do it, who would believe you?
RayfordSteele, Aug 12 2022
  

       You don't think the CCP would make sure they were on the airwaves every second if this wasn't from the lab? Of course they would be. The Chinese aren't stupid enough to let an out and out lie go unchallenged. The lab personnel who had proof this wasn't from the lab would be center stage.   

       But that's not what they're doing, a vague denial, a change of story, another change of story, the "released from a US military base." If they're not hiding anything they sure need to take lessons in not looking guilty when you haven't done anything wrong. Lesson one: Just tell the truth, one will do and you don't need to go the route of "We didn't do it, it was from a wet market and if not that, an American military base, and if not that, an asteroid from outer space, and if not that..."   

       So we can establish without a reasonable doubt one thing: they are lying about this. It's not from a Chinese wet market, AND a Chinese farm, AND an American military base all at once.   

       See the article from the one foreign scientist that worked at the lab. Long, boring screed about how unlikely the lab release is, how great their safety features were, then buried deep towards the end, but not at the very end that you might skip to they say: "I’m Not Naive’ It’s not that it’s impossible the virus spilled from there."   

       This after an hour of rambling on about how it DIDN'T spill from there.
doctorremulac3, Aug 12 2022
  

       //If they're not hiding anything//   

       Totalitarian states are always hiding something. And when they have nothing to hide, they try to hide that fact. It's just how they work.   

       A softer version of this can be experienced in Western consulting firms, under the name "communications discipline".   

       The whole point of it is that outsiders cannot draw any useful inferences from anything they say or don't say.
pertinax, Aug 12 2022
  

       Good point. You know, shooting for keeping an open mind about this I was trying to think of an explanation for why they would lie about this if they knew it WASN'T a leak from their lab. Maybe when your main mode is lying you lie even when you don't have to. That's the only thing I can think of.   

       The possibility that nobody at the lab knows if it was leaked from there isn't even something I think is worth entertaining. All the specifics about this virus being discussed there's no way those specifics wouldn't be documented. It's my understanding that viruses are like any other life form, you can tell a zebra from a moose pretty easily and document the differences.   

       And speaking of documentation, where are those documents specifying what viruses were being worked on? Where are the actual viruses? Supply them for review. Oh, they were all lost? The dog ate it? Okay. Nothing to see here folks.   

       And again, I'm not sure the origin of this plague, but damned if the CCP doesn't seem to be doing everything in its power to make it look like they created it and released it by accident.   

       There's a theory that hasn't been put out yet. It came from the Chinese wet market/farm/US military base just like they said, and the CCP decided to lie and imply they made it in a lab, playing 8 dimensional geopolitical chess.   

       Or they're just dishonest evil dumbasses.
doctorremulac3, Aug 12 2022
  

       So I've been on holiday for a few days, and come back to suggestions that I'm gonna get paid 'handsomely' for my part in this.
It's news to me, but I'll be sure to post when the cheque arrives.
  

       //I also think we need to stop calling these shots vaccines. Vaccines confer immunity. These injections do not and are therefore not vaccines.//
We /have/ been over this.
The covid vaccines, or at least the good ones, do give pretty good immunity. But that /is/ fairly shortlived; as your circulating antibodies fall off, you're open to reinfection. Given that covid is in one of the families of "common cold" viruses, and you can get reinfected with those after a few months (yes, even the same strain I found research papers which confirmed this), this was always on the cards. There was some hope that since the vaccine was different to a normal infection the resistance might stay up, but it turned out not to be. However, it's clear that it still confers protection against severe disease.
  

         

       //Loris, I was looking at how many wet markets there are in China, about 40,000, and was struck by what a coincidence it was that an institute of virology that studies bat viruses just happened to be 40 minutes away from this particular wet market outbreak point.//   

       This does seem like a coincidence, but maybe it's not as significant as 1/40,000   

       Firstly, 40 mins drive means basically the other side of a very large city (it's in the top ten largest cities in China) - and on the other side of a river which bisects the city.
How many wet markets are there in that city? Is the one where the outbreak was discovered the closest one? I don't know, but if they're as prevalent as suggested then I'd be rather surprised if it was. (Wikipedia says: "A wet market ... is a marketplace selling fresh foods such as meat, fish, produce and other consumption-oriented perishable goods in a non-supermarket setting".) Here, we'd historically here, there was a butcher / fishmonger in even mid-size villages. The tradition is different, but I imagine that there could be one in reachable distance of every suburban center within the city. So... what is the model of how the disease escaped the lab? If it's deliberate, were the agents thinking that a release on the other side of the city would be enough to allay suspicion? Doesn't seem likely. If it's accidental, how did the virus travel that distance? I might be persuaded it if there was a sampling program or other lab visit to that specific market, or if, say, a lab researcher had that market on the way home or something, but that itself would kind of be a coincidence - I'd expect the outbreak to be centered on the lab itself).
  

       Similarly, would we have been surprised if the initial outbreak hadn't been associated with a wet market? Well, what if it had been, say, a meat packing plant?   

       I think people have said that the lab doing bat virus research specifically is suspicious. Well, I guess the question is how many research centres there are in china doing that? Using Google scholar in the date range 1990-2018 and the search terms "bat viruses china", I opened papers and looked at th author affiliations. Here are some:
Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China.
State Key Laboratory of Virology, Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS, Wuhan, China.
Guangzhou Institute of Biomedicine and Health, Guangzhou, China. and Guangdong Institute of Applied Biological Resource, Guangzhou, 510260, China
Department of Microbiology The University of Hong Kong, China
Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Dali, China
College of Life Science, Hainan Normal University, Haikou, Hainan, China
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Key Laboratory of Jilin Province for Zoonosis Prevention and Control, Military Veterinary Research Institute, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Jingyue Economy Development Zone, Changchun, China
Department of Epidemiology, Research Institute for Medicine of Nanjing Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
Key Laboratory of Laboratory Medicine of Jiangsu Province, School of Medicine, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, Jiangsu, China
State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu Military Region, 168 Daguan Road, Kunming, 650032, China
General Hospital of Chengdu Military Region of PLA, Chengdu, 610083, China
Shandong University at Weihai, Weihai, People’s Republic of China
Veterinary College of Foshan University, Foshan, People’s Republic of China
Veterinary College of Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People’s Republic of China
Fujian A&F University, College of Animal Science, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China
Guangxi Key Laboratory of Veterinary Biotechnology, Guangxi Veterinary Research Institute, Nanning, Guangxi Province, China
Jiangsu Co-innovation Center for Prevention and Control of Important Animal Infectious Diseases and Zoonoses, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China
Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, China
Henan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China
Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China
Longquan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Longquan, Zhejiang Province, China
Neixiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Neixiang, Henan Province, China
Jiyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiyuan, Henan Province, China
  

       So I've tried not to include multiple labs in the same city, and where someone had multiple affiliations (i.e. had moved) and one was already on the list, I didn't include the other. That's from just the first two pages of hits.   

       To keep myself honest, I'm going to list the cities/towns, alphabetically sorted :
Beijing, Changchun, Chengdu, Dali, Foshan, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Hainan, Harbin, Hong Kong, Jiangsu, Jiyuan, Kunming, Longquan, Nanjing, Nanning, Neixiang, Shanghai, Weihai, Wenzhou, Wuhan, Yangzhou, Zhengzhou
  

       Some of those might be different transliterations of the same place, or included in error, but I think it's clear that there were lots of cities in China with at least some sort of research presence on bat viruses, pre-pandemic. Don't get me wrong, Wuhan was a big player, but it's not unique within China in looking at bat viruses.
Someone who's not me could plot those cities on a map and see what the spread is like.
  

         

       Having done that, I'm not going to dwell on how common eating pangolins is, or whether we're confident they were involved. They're endangered, and it's a desperate shame anyone is catching them, never mind eating them.
Loris, Aug 12 2022
  

       Loris, you are a patient person. I wouldn't have put that much research in if my life depended on it.   

       Okay, 25. So if 25 labs do bat virus research and there are 40,000 wet markets, that's a 1/1,600 coincidence. So now we just need to see how many wet markets sell bats and pangolins and factor that in. Is it rare? Is it common? Do they all sell the same stuff? Dunno.   

       I'll check this out in detail, looks like some very interesting stuff. Any way of knowing how far are bats typically shipped from where they're caught in the wild to various wet markets? I'm familar with farmer's markets here where it's typically locals, less that 50 miles maybe that sell their wares. If the Covid bat's habitat is 1,000 miles away from the wet market where infected bat burritos were sold, I'd want to know something about why the bat hunters wouldn't just to go the local wet market rather than driving halfway across the country with a crate full of bats, pangolins, whatever.   

       If you can't find that info, that's cool, you've already gathered enough. Check's in the mail.   

       //They're endangered, and it's a desperate shame anyone is catching them, never mind eating them.//   

       Hear hear! Point of order: Let's leave the friggin' pangolins alone!
doctorremulac3, Aug 12 2022
  

       //but I think it's clear that there were lots of cities in China with at least some sort of research presence on bat viruses, pre-pandemic. Don't get me wrong, Wuhan was a big player, but it's not unique within China in looking at bat viruses.//   

       All of that is just obfuscation though.
The question is;
Given the distance to the caves, were the bats in question ever even sold at that particular market?
  

       If not... then all of those other points are moot and we can proceed as though only accidental or purposeful release are in question.
Occam's Gas-Axe comin through!
  

       Again, my original bet remains unwavering.   

       //Loris, you are a patient person. I wouldn't have put that much research in if my life depended on it.//   

       Yeah, I thought I ought to have something meaningful to say. It was just a way of getting a fairly quick confirmation, though.   

       That's not an exhaustive list of labs - there are going to be more - probably lots more, because I wasn't slowing down much towards the end of the page. Admittedly, a few of these will be institutes primarily about viruses, or big labs focusing on bat viruses, while others may be just small labs or a PI's sideline. Clearly though, a randomly chosen city may well have some virus research someone could point to and declare "sus".
But it's not just that. How many "wet markets" are there in Wuhan? Is the pandemic origin actually the closest? If there are 1.4 billion people in china, and your 40k wet market count is accurate, then naively you'd expect one market per 35k people. So given that the population of Wuhan is over 10 million (some sources say 12 million), you'd expect maybe 285 markets in that city. I wouldn't be surprised if there were fewer, larger markets- but the larger one is, surely the relatively more likely it must be to be the source of an epidemic strain.
  

       It seems like one of these things should be taken into account:
There are many wet markets in Wuhan, and one should factor probabilities by (at least) that count if it's not the nearest market.
The Wuhan wet market is /huge/, and therefore inherently more likely to be source of an epidemic, and again one should factor that in to the probabilities.
  

       Someone who knows Chinese culture could help with the details.   

       // If the Covid bat's habitat is 1,000 miles away from the wet market where infected bat burritos were sold, I'd want to know something about why the bat hunters wouldn't just to go the local wet market rather than driving halfway across the country with a crate full of bats, pangolins, whatever.//   

       My memory is that there /is/ a very significant distance between the bats with the closest known bat virus relative of SARS-CoV2 (i.e. covid relative) and Wuhan. I don't know the shipping details either, but it wouldn't be the first time humans have shipped contagion right across a country.
Alternatively, maybe there are more local bat viruses we don't know about.
Loris, Aug 12 2022
  

       //All of that is just obfuscation though.//   

       No it isn't. If you don't account for the other potential options, what you're doing is drawing a target around the bullet-hole in the barn.   

       //The question is;
Given the distance to the caves, were the bats in question ever even sold at that particular market?//
  

       That's a good question. As you say, knowing all the details about the bats (or whatever infected animals) at the market would have a huge bearing on our interpretation of events.
How are you planning on finding that out?
Loris, Aug 12 2022
  

       Would you hunt bats in caves hundreds of miles away from, (let's call it what it is), the farmers-market you planned to sell them in?   

       It's really simple.
The answer is no.
Absolutely not.
  

       So we have eliminated the wet market as a scapegoat while Wuhan itself remains the source of origin for the virus.   

       In my mind there are only two questions remaining? I am really not sure why it has been so hard to move past this point.
Where is the critical thinking?
Were is the investigation?
Where is the backlash?
  

       "Who killed Epstein? Where's the rich-fuck island pedo list?"   

       "Nope! Shut up. Covid... Pandemic... Credentials... BLM, AGTBQ, Depp vs. Heard, Murder Hornets, Aunt Jemima, Woke agenda, Terrorists,
Monkey-pox! ... Shingles!"
  

       "Oh... okay. You guys obviously have by best interests at heart and I am totally on board with it."   

       ...   

       not   

       Yea, the shipping bats 600 miles to a wet market to make a couple of bucks with them sounds pretty fishy. The very fact that there are tens of thousands of these places implies they're there as convenient local outlets to local food sources.   

       Why would you drive by 50 wet markets with your crate of bats to get to one in Wuhan?   

       There's so many variables to question at this point its probably about prioritizing stuff, like that bat to burrito pipeline. And any question that gets answered just brings up a half dozen more. I'm beginning to aggrevate myself.   

       1) What percentage of bats carry this virus? Do some percentage of them have this all the time? Do they go for years without the virus? If so how does it lie dormant?   

       2) Has anybody ever caught this bat virus before, and if eating these things is common, why not?   

       3) Is there some sort of triple zoonotic transmission that created this super virus? It was so strong that it jumped not just from one species to another, but to another as well and the act of breaking through 3 different immune systems creating a super bug? Has that ever happened before in nature? Is that something that wearing a lab coat might help you achieve?   

       4) How come the entire planet isn't coming together to find out for sure what killed million of people and do whatever is necessary to make sure it doesn't happen again?   

       I'm afraid I have a hunch about that last one, and the answer isn't good.
doctorremulac3, Aug 13 2022
  

       I still have only two questions... well one really.
The answer to it is pivotal.
  

       One way the teeter can forgive, the totter... maybe not so much.   

       ...   

       talkin monkeys man, y'gotta hand it to'em.
What a shit show.
  

       Why do you think shipping food (or living animals) long distance is unusual?
It's par for the course in the modern world.
  

       In the UK, we had a foot and mouth outbreak a few years back. It was pretty widespread throughout the country and there were cases in Europe because animal transport wasn't shut down quickly.   

       In the USA, there were pretty significant concerns about disease in honeybees, because the hives are moved around the country to fertilise different crops.   

       Is it that you think there isn't enough meat on a bat to be worth it?
I don't know, but I do know that there's a strong demand for the exotic in China. They import meat from around the world, including the UK, and fund various other similar exercises, such as the black market in elephant tusk and rhino horn.
They also have an entirely different culture around food, and eat animals you wouldn't, like dogs. There's a saying that the Chinese will eat everything on four legs, except the table, and everything on two legs, except man. At least some segment of the population is entirely up for it.
Loris, Aug 13 2022
  

       So you're saying they would ship a crate of bats 600 miles driving past ten thousand wet markets to get to one? Okay, maybe, but that's not the way the equivalent works in this country.   

       We have farmer's markets in America that feature local produce, foot stuffs etc. that I'm assuming is similar to these wet markets. They don't feature perishables shipped from 600 miles away.   

       I understand the Chinese menu features a lot of stuff we don't eat, but that doesn't answer the question of why you might drive by ten thousand wet markets with your wares to get to one on the other side of the country.   

       If that's the case. Is it? That was my question about the distribution routes of these food animals. When you're referring to food being shipped great distances, you're referring to centralized food locations like farms and processing plants that aren't numerous enough to have one in every city, not small business, locally made products like Bob's Bat Bratwurst. Unless there's massive bat food industry. If it big bat is making big bucks, enough to pay for this massive transportation network, are bats so expensive it's worth it to have a distribution network to 40,000 different markets? I gathered that these were sold as something kind of exotic and rare.   

       But I don't know, I'd need to see the distribution map of these things before I can make any evaluation one way or another if that's something to be considered.   

       Which begs another question, maybe the biggest one. What kind of bat smoothie numbers are we talking about? When you're talking about food being shipped great distances, say hamburger meat, there are 194,395 fast food restaurants in the US. That means that the processing plants and trucks to get the meat from farm to happy meal make sense. Is there enough demand for this bat chow to have thousand of trucks shipping them tens of thousands of miles a year like we do with hamburger meat in the US? How popular is this stuff?   

       I guess to summarize my question, is this something exotic and worth shipping long distanced like the rhino horn you mentioned, or something common and cheap like rat meat that anybody can just get from the cave outside of town and bring to market on the weekend? I can't make any more guesses without actual numbers and geographic mapping of source to outlet.   

       One path would be sufficient, the location of where the Wuhan bats came from, the timeline and path they took to get to two places: 1) the Wuhan wet market and 2) the Wuhan bat lab.
doctorremulac3, Aug 13 2022
  

       Bats do fly you know. You don't necessarily have to ship them. Or even eat them for their germs to get around.
RayfordSteele, Aug 13 2022
  

       If wild live bats are transmitting the virus you'd see the most outbreaks by areas they frequent the most.   

       So we can look at two vectors of bat virus at the Wuhan market, however many are flying around and however many hundreds of dead ones are coming into very close contact with people who are actually preparing them and eating them. I'd go with the hundreds of bats that people are actually touching and eating rather than however many are just flying around specifically trying to avoid people like bats do.   

       And you're mistaken about people not eating bats. I see that you took that down but see link just to make sure that's clear.
doctorremulac3, Aug 13 2022
  

       That's a really good find, doc (linked as "One article addressing the number of bats sold")! This is a report of the animals they found being sold at the markets, both legally and illegally (but entirely openly, and as non-law enforcement they say they had very good access).   

       According to that, there are 17 wet markets across Wuhan City.   

       Also, they /were/ selling a wide variety of wild-caught animals illegally, and "the animals sold were relatively expensive, representing luxury food items, not cheap bushmeat".   

       They /didn't/ find any bats or pangolins, and doubt they missed them. However, they did find animals which can carry SARS-CoV2, including raccoon dogs and mink. I think there has always been strong consideration of an intermediate carrier between bats and humans, so this seems to be plausible and consistent with the model.   

       I'm going to link an article from the BBC. I think the current scientific consensus is that the Wuhan market was the proximate source of the outbreak.
This doesn't entirely rule out a secret experiment involving the lab, or accidental release by a researcher visiting the market. However, the latter is much less likely, it would be a real coincidence - and the former... well, I won't say it couldn't happen. The USA did biological experiments on its cities in the 1950s (see e.g. "Operation Sea-Spray") after all. I don't think the system in China is morally superior, but one would hope that they would have learnt from the American experience.
  

       To sum up, I think what we can say is - there does seem to be a plausible pathway for the zoonotic model, the coincidence of there being a research lab somewhat nearby isn't particularly big, and there is no actual evidence of the lab being involved.
Loris, Aug 13 2022
  

       So what do we do with that? If we aren't 100% sure on which exact vector path's impact we need to mitigate, let's hit them all.   

       At some point we need to do something. I don't really see a downside to 1) enforcing banning of dangerous food stuffs, whatever they are and 2) banning or strictly regulating gain of function research, which by the way isn't a new idea. I heard the Obama administration put bans in place. Don't know the specifics but outright bans sound like a pretty good idea to me.
doctorremulac3, Aug 13 2022
  

       //1) What percentage of bats carry this virus? Do some percentage of them have this all the time? Do they go for years without the virus? If so how does it lie dormant?//   

       I don't know specific answers to these questions.
However, there are /lots/ of bat species : "bats comprise about 20% of all classified mammal species worldwide"-wikipedia. With this diversity comes an increased chance of a disease being capable of spreading.
  

       //2) Has anybody ever caught this bat virus before, and if eating these things is common, why not?//   

       Don't know, probably not this exactly, but I've heard that bat researchers in the same caves as the nearest SARS-CoV2 relative got sick.   

       //3) Is there some sort of triple zoonotic transmission that created this super virus? It was so strong that it jumped not just from one species to another, but to another as well and the act of breaking through 3 different immune systems creating a super bug? Has that ever happened before in nature? Is that something that wearing a lab coat might help you achieve?//   

       I think it's not really about the strength of the virus. It was just kind of lucky to make the species jump. It seems like there are a few unrelated animals which all happen to be susceptible to covid, but that might not have been the case initially. Potentially, the first jump would happen after it had made a specific evolutionary innovation. So maybe it went from bats to racoon dogs on a fur farm. But, after it had jumped, it would then evolve to be fitter in its new niche. This is standard evolution. Those changes may mean it's better able to jump to another species (like humans) in turn.   

       //4) How come the entire planet isn't coming together to find out for sure what killed million of people and do whatever is necessary to make sure it doesn't happen again?//   

       Humans, eigh? Just when you think it's time for everyone to pull together, they'll decide it's time to push their national interests.
Loris, Aug 13 2022
  

       Yup. And to take advantage of any calamity to increase their grip on power. "It's not a disaster, it's a great opportunity!".   

       Which is NOT something I see a solution for.   

       We could get invaded by space aliens and the cry would be "If it weren't for the (fill in the blank) party we'd have the appropriate measures in place to fight these green monsters! Time for a political revolution that puts us in total control! Let all Earthlings band together to fight the (fill in the blank) party!".
doctorremulac3, Aug 13 2022
  

       //Why do you think shipping food (or living animals) long distance is unusual? It's par for the course in the modern world.//   

       Not for a farmers market.   

       //Bats do fly you know. You don't necessarily have to ship them. Or even eat them for their germs to get around.//   

       Not that far.
Where is the outbreak at villages near the caves?
Why Wuhan market?
Obviously not because a leading viral research facility is there. Heavens no.
  

       Trust in authority. They're here to help you. Elected to represent you... speak for you even. You have no voice but your vote.   

       If you don't vote, you have no right to complain.   

       <long-distance shipping>
//Not for a farmers market.//
  

       Maybe not, but that isn't an accurate equivalent. It's more like a combination of that along with poached and/or exotic animal sale, pet shop and butcher. But without the hygiene standards.
If you'd looked at the paper doc linked ("One article addressing the number of bats sold"), you'd see that besides farmed animals (like raccoon dogs, now known to be susceptible to covid19) they also sold wild animals and exotics from far away, mostly alive, for food and for pets.
  

       Some quotes:
  

       "Notably, vendors freely disclosed a variety of protected species on sale illegally in their shops... "   

       "Almost all animals were sold alive, caged, stacked and in poor condition"   

       "Approximately 30% of individuals from 6 mammal species inspected [...] had suffered wounds from gunshots or traps, implying illegal wild harvesting"   

       "the animals sold were relatively expensive, representing luxury food items, not cheap bushmeat"   

       And I should say again that they didn't find bats (or pangolins) in Wuhan, but there were other animals which carry covid.   

         

       //Where is the outbreak at villages near the caves?//   

       Turns out there have been numerous outbreaks of various diseases, including coronaviruses. Covid19 is just the one to luck out and go global. Probably helped by being fairly mild in most people. If there are diseases with e.g. "an unusually high initial case fatality rate of 30%" you might well not notice anything of significance if a cold goes around the village and a couple of people die.   

       And do you remember SARS? That was in Guangdong Province in 2002, much more lethal and - very fortunately for us - the outbreak fizzled.   

         

       //If you don't vote, you have no right to complain.//   

       Well, yeah. If you can vote but don't, you're not doing the basic thing you could do to affect the situation.
Loris, Aug 14 2022
  

       They didn't find bats or pangolins in Wuhan? Well we can add that to the misinformation parade we've been experiencing around this pandemic because bats and pangolins were either there or they weren't, and now we've heard both. I think if the original story that it was from bats or pangolins was false it would have been bigger news though.   

       Just to be clear, I'm not vouching for any of those articles, most of the articles I found on the subject are approaching the questions around Wuhan with a clear bias, something I'm trying to avoid.
doctorremulac3, Aug 14 2022
  

       //They didn't find bats or pangolins in Wuhan?//   

       Not according to that paper you found, doc.
Really, it's brilliant - almost exactly the information we wanted, well written and easy to read.
They were fortuitously surveying the 17 wet markets in Wuhan over the two and a half years up to November 2019. It's possible there were some bats at the end, or in-between visits which they missed, I suppose (It was just one guy doing the survey, and this probably wasn't their only job). However they say there probably weren't and I think this is reasonable. They say pangolins aren't traded much in China any more (I haven't read the source they point to).
  

       That doesn't mean bats weren't the primary source of the virus - they probably were, but the inference is that crossover would have happened via another intermediate species. At least two such species are mentioned as for sale - raccoon dogs and mink. Both can and are farmed, but the raccoon dogs are also caught from the wild.
Loris, Aug 14 2022
  

       No bats or pangolins at the wet markets eh?   

       If this bat born virus isn't from the wet markets in Wuhan where else could it have come from? That’s a pretty strong data point for the lab leak theory.   

       To be clear though, I’m just putting these articles up for consideration, their validity is unverified.
doctorremulac3, Aug 14 2022
  

       //If this bat born virus isn't from the wet markets in Wuhan where else could it have come from?//   

       My (idle) guess would be something like:
wild bats -> captured bats -> captured/traded raccoon dogs, in transit -> raccoon dog farm -> Wuhan wet market
  

       Raccoon dog farms were principally fur farms, but when the prices dropped, some were sold for food.
Loris, Aug 14 2022
  

       So the new assertion was that the pandemic was transmitted to humans via raccoon dogs? (an animal I'm hearing about for the first time)   

       Sounds like this investigation might benefit from a little Occam's razor. Far from being complicated and needing continuous additional scenarios to appear plausible, lab leaks do occur. (link) In this situation, various parties are so invested in selling their version of events, the idea of a lab leak has been relegated to the same status as Big Foot sightings. They're a regular occurrence and the Wuhan lab was investigated and given a horrible safety grade assessment before the outbreak.   

       Might have been from a wet market but it's taking a lot of logistical tap dancing to sell the idea, unlike the other version of events, that it was just another lab leak. (link)
doctorremulac3, Aug 14 2022
  


 

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