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Long 'bakery

Who will check your ideas 5 centuries from now?
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The HalfBakery officially franchises with the Long Now foundation, to ensure that the site remains live and functional for the next 10,000 years. A solar-powered solid-state server is installed in a mountain top location, tended by a hereditary caste of bakespeoples. Interfaces are provided by wireless, electrical cable, and mechanical vibrating tongue to allow connection to the server by whatsoever method is least appropriate. Etc.
pocmloc, Mar 15 2019

Rise of the machines. https://www.youtube...watch?v=TBRCZLzn5pM
[bigsleep, Mar 17 2019]

Dark forest theory? https://www.youtube...watch?v=9EH1G4EwljM
[Skewed, Mar 17 2019]

Dark Forest Theory https://www.google....cshid=1552848478267
[theircompetitor, Mar 17 2019]

Why is it so cool to be gloomy https://humanprogress.org/article?p=1613
[theircompetitor, Mar 18 2019]

Poverty decline in absolute numbers http://datatopics.w...-01-no-poverty.html
[MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 18 2019]

[link]






       //hereditary caste of bakespeoples//   

       This may be a problem.   

       I'm given to understand the elusive bakespeoples, by their very nature, rarely (if ever, in some cases) interact with real people of any gender, far less those of the opposite gender for long enough at a stretch to satisfy the more normal requirements of procreation.   

       We may have to resort to the less normal requirements of procreation.   

       If anyone know's what they are could they tell me?
Skewed, Mar 15 2019
  

       I could run off a few clones to get things started.
MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 15 2019
  

       It's doubtful that there be much life on earth of any higher form in 100 years time, given the rate of progression of over consumption, pollution, habitat loss, mass extinctions, and made made global warming.
xenzag, Mar 16 2019
  

       A //higher life form// in common use means "any" multi cell organism, including plants as well as animals.   

       Do you honestly think any damage (pollution or other) we can do to the planet will be able to destroy all multi cell life on the planet inside 100 years (or even at all) [xen]?   

       Any pollution sufficient to impact our species significantly can be expected to end further pollution production from us ~ which means?   

       [looks expectantly at the class]   

       "Any species still around after the extinction (or merely a significant reduction of) the human population can be expected to be just fine."
Skewed, Mar 16 2019
  

       Good luck with that thinking process..... micro plastics are in virtually everything now, and are bound to increase in concentration in time; there is a mass reduction in the world's vital insect population; meanwhile global warming is accelerating to the point of no return. It's time for Max to make is clones. If they can eat each other then they might survive a bit longer.
xenzag, Mar 16 2019
  

       If the halfbakery went offline for 10K years, I’m fairly sure nobody would notice after a while, then when it finally came back up, it’d be visited by a few people who just thought there might be something worth looking at and gradually a few more people would arrive and it’d carry on the same as usual. It has happened before.
Ian Tindale, Mar 16 2019
  

       What can I say [xen?], OK you win, I'm persuaded, you're an idiot.   

       [aside : that was what you were aiming for with all your trolling to date right? well, mission accomplished! good job!]
Skewed, Mar 16 2019
  

       //global warming is accelerating to the point of no return//   

       No return? We aren't anywhere near that, in fact arguably no such thing exists. It just depends on how many people you're willing to kill.   

       If we had a war tomorrow & kill 80% of the population that would (easily) put an end for all practical purposes to further human pollution of the planet ~ & the reduced emissions from farming & industrial activities caused by the removal of that 80% slice of the population is also more than enough to actually reverse global warming in exactly the same way the kill-off of the American population occasioned by the arrival of Europeans on the continent led to that mini Ice-age we experienced shortly after.   

       I'm not advocating that as something we should do.. just pointing out the flaws in your misuse of the words //point of no return// in this context.
Skewed, Mar 16 2019
  

       I think a good heuristic in answering the question "how many people are you willing to kill" is to assume zero and go from there.   

       So if someone suggests, say, a point of no return, consider that in the context of not actually murdering anyone, since I'd imagine that's the likely contextual basis from which the original comment came - it used to be the case this would go without having to be explicitly pointed out, but I guess these are the times we're living in.
zen_tom, Mar 16 2019
  

       //guess these are the times we're living in//   

       If you live in times where the Defense Secretary says he wants separate laws for the armed forces so they can't be prosecuted for murder, if they do actually murder someone, then yes, pretty much :)   

       But that aside, it's more that I'm trying to explain that the global warming & pollution we're creating is very unlikely to be either the "end of the world", the "end of all life" or even the "end of the human race" ~ more of a die-back than a die-off ~ it should probably be thought of more like a steam engines self-regulating pressure release valve..   

       Once we've done enough damage to our environment to cause significant deaths in our own population that automatically reduces the pollution we cause ~ it will be accompanied by a significant period of extinctions of other animals yes ~ but as normal for these things will be followed by an explosion of new species ~ it's highly unlikely to cause the extinction of humans though ~ lots of deaths, maybe wars for resources, significant reduction in world population for sure, but human extinction? no, we'll still be here when the world has settled to it's new normal, just not all of us.
Skewed, Mar 16 2019
  

       Taking all that up there ^ into consideration.   

       //I think a good heuristic in answering the question "how many people are you willing to kill" is to assume zero//   

       I think it's safe to say today's world leaders (whoever you think that is) gave up on that "heuristic" a long time ago.   

       The only chance to follow through with that "heuristic" is to get a serious grip on world carbon emissions & population growth by restricting births (like the Chinese did but have now abandoned), I don't see any persuasive signs any attempt at either is being seriously considered ~ which leaves only the conclusion they've decided (any that have actually made a conscious decision that is) to just let it happen & the devil take the hindmost.   

       In case you hadn't guessed from the quotes, I'm not sure you really meant heuristic there :)
Skewed, Mar 16 2019
  

       //If the halfbakery went offline for 10K years,   

       (psssst Don't give Jutta ideas)
not_morrison_rm, Mar 16 2019
  

       try as I might, I see very little difference between today's climate alarmists and those that were calling on Christendom to repent before the world ends.   

       That wholesale repentance was quite as likely as the implementation of the actual things you'd have to do to cut carbon to the desired levels of the alarmists.   

       And the world is just about as likely to end as Jesus is to (re) appear.   

       We've lost 100M plus in WWII. Similar probably in WWI. Horrible Spanish Flue.   

       Real events with real consequences, not requiring zombies or carbon emissions. We've never yet had a meaningful exchange of nuclear weapons even.   

       Carbon is the biggest threat to national security? When a new second amendment law could split the US? Tribalism driven by social networks is a bigger threat to national security. The creeping Cultural Revolution that devalues civilization and is increasingly making the lords of the flies bolder in their nihilism is a bigger threat to the human inhabitants of the planet. And the roaches, notwithstanding [xenzag]s hand wringing, will do fine.
theircompetitor, Mar 16 2019
  

       The Earth has a 'human' cold. Whether it turns into a fever and death seems a stretch. Most problems can be engineered, though.
wjt, Mar 17 2019
  

       // "Any species still around after the extinction (or merely a significant reduction of) the human population can be expected to be just fine." //   

       Unless we start the clathrate release just before going extinct.
notexactly, Mar 17 2019
  

       Not to mention the singularity. Dramatisation [link].
bigsleep, Mar 17 2019
  

       Or the dark forest theory.
theircompetitor, Mar 17 2019
  

       //Carbon is the biggest threat to national security?//   

       All known terrorists have been (& are) carbon based life forms.. ergo.   

       //the dark forest theory//   

       The what? [Googles] Oh bum! [link] well, that's it then.   

       [Frantically scrabbles through old tat at the bottom of a draw] Aha! there it is [pulls out an electronic thumb].   

       Well, I'm off then, does anyone know when the next Vogon Constructor Fleet is due in our vicinity?
Skewed, Mar 17 2019
  

       I think the dark forest theory nicely justifies this idea.
pocmloc, Mar 17 2019
  

       Not to stand firmly in any specific corner, but there are some forms of pollution that will likely outlive us and not be significantly reduced when we die off or thin out. Detroit, for example.   

       Before that point happens there will be a war for resources.   

       It'll be ugly.
RayfordSteele, Mar 18 2019
  

       //And the world is just about as likely to end as Jesus is to (re) appear.// - yes, you're right - the world will be fine, it's just the people living on it who will be wiped out.
hippo, Mar 18 2019
  

       //it's just the people living on it who will be wiped out.//   

       Accept they won't be [hippo], just most of them, and only for a while.   

       //more of a die-back than a die-off ~ it should probably be thought of more like a steam engines self-regulating pressure release valve..//   

       When pollution is enough to cause significant levels of human death it automatically reduces itself by killing off some of it's own primary cause so it stops (or rather, reduces significantly).. we die back, pollution drops, environment recovers, we breed, we pollute (again).. rinse & repeat until you get bored with it then (maybe) think about using more eco-friendly tech & initiating population controls to keep the population at sustainable levels.   

       I call it the yo-yo effect.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       Again, a good "rule of thumb" to use when making considered remarks on most any subject, is to try and stick to the premise that "significant levels of human death" is something in and of itself to be avoided. I care little for how the world evolves post such an event, and would prefer it if we concentrated on avoiding that circumstance in the first place, rather than nit-picking and point-scoring over what's likely or unlikely to happen later - that seems, at best to be an academic exercise. And whilst I relish the prospect of having more academia than less, it's something that is predicated on not having "significant levels of human death" in the longer term.
zen_tom, Mar 18 2019
  

       //yes, you're right - the world will be fine, it's just the people living on it who will be wiped out.// [hippo] the prophets of Revelation had irrefutable evidence too.   

       Those that think they are so great at predicting should look at Facebook's stock price about 53 weeks ago. And think about what 100 years really is.
theircompetitor, Mar 18 2019
  

       //Again, a good "rule of thumb" to use when making considered remarks on most any subject, is to try and stick to the premise that "significant levels of human death" is something in and of itself to be avoided//   

       "I don't want to hear about it because it's not nice" seems to be what you're (very politely) saying [zen]? sorry if I've misunderstood..   

       Again, a good "rule of thumb" to use when making considered remarks on most any subject, is to try and stick to the premise that "ignoring reality (facts or the truth) just so you can keep thinking happy thoughts" is something in and of itself to be avoided.   

       Pretending the world is other than it is just so you can feel "comfortable" is a really stupid way to approach things if you want to try & work out what's happening or how stuff works.. in short, it's an unscientific approach to problem solving that's liable to get you killed ("Oh, he's got a knife, & he's coming towards me? he must want to trim my toenails for me, how nice! .. ) it's also pretty stupid, but I'm repeating myself now.   

       Ignore the not nice fact doing nothing instead of doing something will cause lots of people to die & guess what? .. lots of people die.. things won't not-happen just because you closed your eyes stuffed your fingers in your ears & sang "la la la", that's not some kind of magic spell, it won't work.   

       Edit: [glances up at prior text] hmm.. I would like to apologize for my (frequent) inability to make points without resorting to sarcasm.. sorry.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       Somehow I don't think that's what he's saying.
RayfordSteele, Mar 18 2019
  

       //Why is it so cool to be gloomy//   

       //HumanProgress//   

       //"When the Swedish statistician and public health expert Hans Rosling began asking people that question in 2013, he was astounded by their responses. Only 5% of 1,005 Americans got the right answer: Extreme poverty has been cut almost in half"//   

       Extreme poverty has been cut in half, what about less extreme poverty? what he's actually saying there is "Hey, the number of people who would starve to death without state intervention or resorting to crime (some sort of theft, robbery or fraud, selling drugs maybe) in less than a month (or whatever the appropriate figure is) has halved, isn't that good" while ignoring the figures for the number of people that would starve to death in more than a month without state intervention or turning to crime to make up the shortfall in their income.   

       So.. the fact of the matter is just as many are probably in a position where they'd starve without benefits or crime to supplement their income but they'll take longer to do it, & that's good is it.   

       Typical misappropriation of one fact to try & claim something else isn't true.. & the primary cause of my personal "gloominess", it really pisses me off to be lied to like this, I find it insulting (because it presumes I'm too stupid to spot the lie) & that's exactly what he's doing here.. lying to me.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       //the fact of the matter is just as many will probably starve without benefits or crime to supplement their income but they'l just take longer to do it// - Hans Rosling was pretty good at stats and at the presentation of global development data, so I assume you've got some pretty rock-solid, compelling evidence for this claim - ??
hippo, Mar 18 2019
  

       a misuse of facts is to highlight income inequality when a person with welfare and an Android phone and running water in their house lives better than most humans that have ever lived, or to say that Warren Buffet pays a lower tax rate than his secretary when the federal tax burden is primarily born by the rich.   

       Carry on being gloomy, by all means.
theircompetitor, Mar 18 2019
  

       //I assume you've got some pretty rock-solid, compelling evidence//   

       For the UK? yes, benefits & benefits in work figures have increased, you expect me to dig them out of the ONS for you? do it yourself.   

       //when a person with welfare and an Android phone..//   

       Never had one, but that irrelevance aside, If you think anyone on benefits of any description gets a good life & isn't living a hand to mouth existence not all that incomparable to slavery you're.. well, I haven't the words, not polite ones anyway.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       //if you think anyone on benefits gets a good life & isn't living a hand to mouth existence not all that incomparable to slavery// - This is not something I've said. On the other hand you now seem to be saying that significant numbers of people in the UK are starving to death because of poverty and that the ONS has data on this which will back up your claim.
hippo, Mar 18 2019
  

       //This is not something I've said//   

       Was talking to [their] on that bit not you, edited to make clear.   

       //you now seem to be saying that significant numbers of people in the UK are starving to death because of poverty//   

       My turn //This is not something I've said// I said "would" IF they didn't have benefits OR turn to some form of crime to supplement their income.   

       //that the ONS has data on this which will back up your claim//   

       The claim I actually made, yes.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       As Lenin famously said, if the rich are unhappy, it's their own fault. No doubt it's also their fault that everyone else is unhappy.   

       It sucks to be on assistance. Sucks more to have to use an outhouse. Sucks living paycheck to paycheck. Sucks more to have people shooting at you.   

       The man may be keeping them down with free cable, but they'll keep getting by.
theircompetitor, Mar 18 2019
  

       //No doubt it's also their fault that everyone else is unhappy//   

       Why wouldn't it be? if you steal from someone, use them as a slave, tell them it's their own fault, to stop whining & just kindly shut up & die you don't honestly expect them not to castrate you & feed you you're own bits while they roast your toes (still attached) do you?   

       "Eat the rich" there's no need to be nice about it & kill them first though (after all, a little torture can only be good for their souls).
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       yes, yes, it all went downhill with the invention of agriculture. If only we could go back to our roots and eat only organic without the benefit of carbon producing fire.
theircompetitor, Mar 18 2019
  

       //If only we could go back to our roots and eat only organic without the benefit of carbon producing fire//   

       Not at all, I prefer my (long) pork well toasted, the crackling is the best bit.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       //The man may be keeping them down with free cable, but they'll keep getting by//   

       Until the mood is misjudged and they don yellow vests.
bigsleep, Mar 18 2019
  

       //Until the mood is misjudged and they don yellow vests.//   

       I'm a little ashamed of the English that we haven't already done this, but at the same time (perversely) a little proud of the unsurpassed cunning conniving venality of our leaders in managing to stave off such a thing where the french have failed.. lets just say my feelings are "complicated?"   

       Then again, maybe our lords & masters have just been a bit lucky so far?
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       luckily then France had already invented all the necessary things to quell social unrest down, including higher taxation of the wealthy
theircompetitor, Mar 18 2019
  

       And every 20 years someone translates the idea into words of the current generation along with cultural notes and joke explanation if applicable.
pashute, Mar 18 2019
  

       Who's joking?
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       From [theircompetitor]s link:   

       "Has the percentage of the world population that lives in extreme poverty almost doubled, almost halved or stayed the same over the past 20 years? When the Swedish statistician and public health expert Hans Rosling began asking people that question in 2013, he was astounded by their responses. Only 5% of 1,005 Americans got the right answer: Extreme poverty has been cut almost in half."   

       I think I get why so many people got that wrong and it's not what he thinks.
The numbers are confusing when dealing with an inflating population. By asking for a percentage of poverty stricken comparison then yes, the percentage of living humans now in poverty is less than half what it once was, but if you count the shear number of humans now in poverty compared to when the original concencus took place then that number may or may not be be several times larger.
  

       I highly doubt it is less than half of the original number so strictly on a suffering scale... the public probably came closer than the stats show depending on how the question itself was interpreted by the participants.   

       //if you count the shear number of humans now in poverty compared to when the original concencus took place// //that number may or may not be be several times larger.//   

       Now combine that with my take on it.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       According to <link>, the absolute number of people (as well as the percentage) in extreme poverty has fallen a lot.
MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 18 2019
  

       //absolute number of people (as well as the percentage) in extreme poverty has fallen//   

       If that's true then my original point remains.   

       The difference between 40% less than needed to live (or wherever their definition of "extreme" poverty lies) & 10% less than needed to live is irrelevant.. "too little" is an absolute.. fiddling around with bollocks about how far "some of them" are past that line is an insulting irrelevance.   

       And subsistence is not enough, if I'm working a full week & full time hours I expect something for myself rather than just enough to keep myself fed, clothed, housed & provide suitable transport sufficient to maintain my ability work, just to keep others profits rolling in.. in fact I'd say that a subsistence wage (or a less than subsistence wage topped up to subsistence by benefits) is nothing more than "free range" slavery.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       Um, I'm not sure what your stance is. You are pissed at the current state of things and get that spin-doctors are running the show but forgetting that those positions, (and the paths to obtaining them), were in place long before anybody current got their jobs, so it is that system which needs to change but not by dragging the wealthy through the streets and you've offered no other solutions unless I missed something.   

       My thoughts on the matter are complicated. I get 'why' things are the way they are, but you have to look at it like Bucky did;
It's a really big ship to steer and we're all just trim-tabs.
  

       ...or like anonymous Greek-buddy said;
“Society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.”
  

       That is not the current incentive plan and young men with bags of seeds have historically been prevented from getting old enough to plant them.
So it has to start with education becoming a fundamental human right. Educated people have fewer children. Educated people make better decisions when it comes to choosing between spin-doctors and men.
  

       .   

       (+) for this idea btw.   

       We need us a server on the moon.   

       //you've offered no other solutions unless I missed something//   

       OK, but you're not going to like it.   

       For the UK?   

       A minimum wage locked to the cost of living plus a %, the determination of the cost of living removed from the politicians hands & put in the hands of an independent government funded NGO (cf. rates & The Valuation Office) with the domestic economy protected by massive tariffs & protectionist policies including immigration control (an absolute necessity to prevent economic collapse if you have wages fixed like that)..   

       If you don't want a de facto "free range" slave class (I don't) then there's no other option.   

       That's just for starters.   

       First step, Brexit.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       Personally I don't give a crap how they do it..   

       But I won't work for less than the cost of living, plus the ancillary costs of working (transport & such), plus something for myself & don't see why anyone else should & starting from that position (of the minimum wage must be at least that & nothing less) ~ I can''t see any other way to do it.
Skewed, Mar 18 2019
  

       Alright. Say all of that was implemented tomorrow just on your say alone. (you won the Emperor-lottery and everybody has to do what you say for a year)
It may or may not fix your local problems, (I'm not there so I'm out of that loop), but how much would all of that combined effect the total number of those who suffer through poverty world wide? I'm thinking a fraction of a percent.
  

       It's a really Really big ship... too many captains... not enough stewards.   

       It's not that our population is too large. We could accomplish more than megalithic tasks very quickly with the amount of man-power currently at humanity's disposal if they could all just be kept fed, able to prosper and so therefore happy.   

       It's also not that the amount of foodstuffs currently wasted by first-world countries wouldn't cover most of what it would take to do that.   

       It's that there are no more-than-megalithic tasks requiring that many hands to make short work and so no allocation of resources to pay for the labor because there are too damn many chefs in the kitchen. Past atrocities have taught us to not let any one group attain enough power to become corrupted by it and societies on the whole are generally xenophobic so we stay fragmented on purpose.   

       OK, I've the bones of a reply but I want to check the news before I hit the sack so I'll have to get back to this tomorrow.
Skewed, Mar 19 2019
  

       What we need are multiple, completely incompatible economies.   

       We divide up into multiple colors. People on the red team can only buy, sell, or trade with other reds. Meanwhile people on the green team can only do likewise with their color group. A caste system without the implied hierarchy, (not that one won't eventually take shape). Colorblind people, well, not sure what they do.
RayfordSteele, Mar 19 2019
  

       //colorblind people// You need wild cards in the system, [RayfordSteele], jokers, outliers, black swans, the embodiment of the uncertainty principle. Build it in, to prevent it collapsing the system, much as The Patrician kept Leonard da Quirm 'un'locked away in Ahnk-Morpork (it was an open and shut case).   

       Related note: Murphy's lawyer used the Law of Unintended Consequences to get the charges against him dropped.
Sgt Teacup, Mar 19 2019
  

       // A minimum wage locked to the cost of living plus a %/   

       paying workers at McDonalds more ultimately results in less of them, and higher costs for a McDonalds meal.   

       Reducing the cost of goods is MUCH more useful ultimately than increasing wages.
theircompetitor, Mar 19 2019
  

       This discussion is certainly making its own sweet path through a diverse range of topics, but it might be polite, to try and remain on topic - I was going to chip in with some earlier clarifications, but the velocity of conversation has exceeded my ability to keep up, and so fear doing so wouldn't add much in the way of bringing the topic back on track.   

       Reading this wishlist of the way we'd like the world to pay its debt to our continued existence is of cultural interest however, and so presumably would have some value in 10,000 years or so, if only as warning to the cockroach hoards that would undoubtedly take our place in the event of any systematic environmental shock brought about by our collective ethnological failure.
zen_tom, Mar 19 2019
  

       It seems we are trying but nature doesn't really take plastic. Might be different in 10,000 years.
wjt, Mar 19 2019
  

       //cockroach hoards// hoarding cockroaches is pointless. There are hordes of them everywhere.
MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 19 2019
  

       Thankyou Max - my hoarding is demonstrably inappropriate in this instance.
zen_tom, Mar 19 2019
  

       amber, resin, silk...
theircompetitor, Mar 19 2019
  
      
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