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Predict the Stock Market

What are people curious/afraid of ?
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If quantifiable search data were available to an individual, I bet one could create algorithms that predict the rising and falling of stocks and or industry-related mutual funds, based on the frequency of searches to specific terms.

For example:

Anxiety-related terms --> invest in commodities. etc.

I know Google has a relative comparison of search term frequency for Google news, but I don't know of any quantifiable data that's not proprietary.

leinypoo13, May 07 2008

Google Zeitgeist http://www.google.c...ress/zeitgeist.html
[DrCurry, May 07 2008]

Efficient Market Hypothesis http://en.wikipedia...t_market_hypothesis
The idea that (in its strongest form) all available information is currently encoded in stock prices. [Srimech, May 07 2008]

Non Linear Dynamics http://www.amazon.c...d=1210198673&sr=1-1
We can tell you the shape, wholesale. [gnomethang, May 07 2008]

Analyzing the moods of tweets predicting stock market http://www.physorg....-mood-dow-days.html
[leinypoo13, Oct 21 2010]


       Predicting markets is notoriously difficult, but I think you might be on to something here, even if your idea should be renamed "Sell google traffic analysis data to investment banks". I fact it wouldn't surprise me if google already did this.
wagster, May 07 2008

       I think such a collection of information might work well if dedicated to specific types of stock and adjusted for time critical fluctuations based on historical analysis. Automatically calculated factors of confidence keyed together with various chance predictors would build a "guess" factor to a point of being correct at least 51%...and really, that's all you need.
Blisterbob, May 07 2008

       What are "Anxiety-related terms"? What "war", "death", "Bush"?
MisterQED, May 07 2008

RayfordSteele, May 07 2008

       /at least 51%...and really, that's all you need./   

       Only if you're making at least double on the ones you get right.
Texticle, May 07 2008

       //What are "Anxiety-related terms"?// Not sure, if i was to start guessing, i would examine increase in global warming terms--> relative to specific venture capital firms.   

       But, it's probably (obviously)not that easy. Just having the past data, for a year or so, however might allow you to test some for correlations, if you could get the numeric data.
leinypoo13, May 07 2008

       Stock market analysis is a subject which me and many of my software engineer friends have considered. The problem we've all come up against is finding a large, cheap corpus of news with date information.   

       You can potentially scrape various news sites but I've yet to find one that allows it in their terms and conditions. So for me this idea falls at the first hurdle, where you say "if quantifiable search data were available."   

       You might also want to look up the Efficient Market hypothesis.
Srimech, May 07 2008

       Corn Prices over 150 years [Srimech}
"Its all in the book!" - Link
gnomethang, May 07 2008

       The best way to predict anything is to be in control of it. Unfortunately the principles of supply and demand dictate that one person can't force everybody else to demand something that person is invested in, however loosely based on supply and demand the stockmarket actually is (it's astonishing to see mere speculation driving the stockmarket).   

       That being said, perhaps you could control the stockmarket through the mass media (i.e. "invest in gold because it is a hedge against inflation"). I'm sure that gold (all of them) will have diminishing returns, it's bound to fall and rise sporadically just like everything else. However, the people who make consistant money on gold are those whom charge investment fees for the transactions (assuming they don't turn around and then loan that money to people with bad credit). Well, and then aside from having a treasure chest to sell off (perhaps fake gold?), haha, they can always get a bailout to offset their losses (investors be damned because the bailouts won't go to their pockets though, merely into the pockets of the deal makers).   

       Other than that, the chaotic stockmarket is unpredictable as the weather.
quantum_flux, Oct 22 2010


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