Half a croissant, on a plate, with a sign in front of it saying '50c'
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pay the $, lodge the time and coordinates, collect the gravity fall.
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A lottery of the time and position of orbital falls. No odds just the sheer number of guesses multiplied by a $. More than one entry per lodger is allowed but must be unique.

If two guesses are equal, because this is an internet, world wide game, another decimal place will be requested. Lodger can choose time , latitude or longitude until a difference is generated.

Closest wins. Just don't stand at your guess at the wrong time.

If actual impact area is found to be not measurable to enough accuracy, a random generator is used to differentiate the closest lodgers to one single winner.

wjt, May 10 2021

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       You can already bet on the likelyhood of any event.
xenzag, May 10 2021
  

       Surely the likelihood of any event is 1, and so no bookie would take that bet?
pocmloc, May 10 2021
  

       ...and you'll be incentivising people to knock satellites out of orbit just to win money
hippo, May 10 2021
  

       But you'll also incentivize people to study physics, fluid dynamics, and orbital mechanics. Which they'll need to knock satellites out of orbit.
Voice, May 10 2021
  

       Yes, a great way to get people to study physics
hippo, May 10 2021
  


 

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