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Forecast states 60% chance of thunder showers... on
one side of the sky its sunny, on the other there are dark
clouds are forming. You want to go pick up milk at a
store 10 minutes away and don't want to carry an
umbrella,
will you make it?
There is only one way to be sure:
Iphone / Blackberry /
Android app that submits your current GPS location to a
weather service. The service looks at a radar image of
precipitation, and calculates the track of the storm
relative to your location. It will then calculate the ETA
for precipitation based on that data. Once it starts
raining, it
switches to "ETA to sunny" mode (using the same
technique) ... should I wait 5 minutes for the rain to
stop?
Weather prediction is pretty good when it comes to 2 to
78
hour forecasts, but real time weather prediction is
largely
untapped.
Wunderground
http://radblast-mi....ightning=0&smooth=1
[Klaatu, Jun 26 2011]
The Met Office
http://www.metoffic....uk/services/talkfc
Talk to a forecaster service. A bit expensive. I wonder if you can choose which forecaster you talk to? That would be cool. [DrBob, Sep 14 2011]
Dark Sky - Weather Prediction, Reinvented
http://www.kickstar...diction-and-visuali
"It might tell you that it will start raining in 8 minutes, with the rain lasting for 15 minutes followed by a 25 minute break." Kickstarter project to develop an iOS app that does exactly this. [tatterdemalion, Oct 31 2011]
App predicts down to the minute when it'll rain
http://whatsnext.bl...tll-rain/?hpt=hp_t3
CNN reports on the planned release of Dark Sky in March 2012 [tatterdemalion, Dec 20 2011]
Dark Sky app is out
http://itunes.apple...517329357?ls=1&mt=8
iTunes link. $3.99. [tatterdemalion, Aug 15 2012]
[link]
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Weather.com gives 15 minute forecasts for the next 4 hours, typically based on zipcode. It's not exactly this, but close. |
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It's not exactly accurate either. I've found myself caught in the rain when the radar shows clear and the other way around as well. |
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// real time weather prediction is largely untapped. // |
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Phone your local airfield. |
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Widely Known To Exist for people who aren't Shambling Mouth-Breathers with Overhanging Eyebrow Ridges. |
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[8th], how long from now until it rains on the Borg?
And cite your source. (We all know how important
reliable citations are.) |
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I await the inclusion of barometric pressure sensors
in cellphones, allowing the rapid onset detection of
rainfall by falling local pressure. |
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//Bollocks ... baked
I went AVMET and TAF/METAR. So, which one
lets me enter my GPS coordinates and spits out
rain ETA for free/cheap? None ... so where is this
baked again?
//Phone your local airfield.
"Hello, I am thinking of going shopping for milk,
but I am
not quite sure whether it will rain. Should I go?"
... Let's say I get you on the other line and you'll
answer my query politely. Why would I care that
it's going
to rain at my local
airfield located 40 km from where I am right now? I
care if it's going to rain HERE.
I'm sure there is some fancy gadget for your
weather radar equipped Learjet - yey! If that
makes the rest of us "Shambling Mouth-Breathers
with Overhanging Eyebrow Ridges" then fine. I
would rather be that than "Stuck Up Ass-Breather
with Perfectly Proportioned Irrelevant Part of
Human Anatomy"
Until real time prediction is:
1) local to the user
2) doesn't cost the user arm and a leg
3) readily available
... it is "largely untapped" |
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// how long from now until it rains on the Borg? // |
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It never rains on OUR parade ... |
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// which one lets me enter my GPS coordinates and spits out rain ETA for free/cheap? // |
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If you have GPS, let us proceed from the supposition that you have an idea where you are. |
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If you have a smartphone, it is possible to access GA AVMET via the web free of charge. |
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1. Learn to interpret the met data.
2. Get the current met data.
3. Apply that data to your own position.
4. Look up at the sky (this is a good one which many miss).
5. Take an umbrella anyway. |
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I think you've hit on it, [8th]. As I read it, [ixnaum] has invented an app that does steps 1 through 3 for you. The technology is there, as you have demonstrated. |
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I would be interested in such an app, I've not seen anything like it. |
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I have: it's called 'The Weather Channel' for iPad. It's free,
accurate, and reliable. It is
exactly like, if not the same thing as, weather.com, as
previously mentioned. They take realtime weather
observations from automated weather stations, local news
affiliates, and other sources, combine them with sattelite
and instrument data, interpret the findings, and report
said findings online every 15 minutes. One day, it predicted
rain at a certain hour (about three hours from the time I
checked) in the valley I live in but nowhere else in this half
of the state. Damned if it wasn't spot on right. If that's not
realtime weather forecasting, I don't know what is. |
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Sorry about the redundant post, but it seemed to me like
something got missed the first time somebody mentioned
it. |
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I can get weather radar on my computer, and have seen phones that show it. |
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I suggest a mini weather station atop each cell tower, that feeds data back to a central computer for processing, then pops a local forecast back to each cell tower. When you inquire, it feeds you the info for the tower you are using. |
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(There was an anecdote about an abrupt thunderstorm travelling across New York City back in the 1930s. Somebody got word of it by phone, did a rain dance, and won his bet.) |
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I can't tell if if my reading of the idea is too specific, or if others' reading of it is too general. It may be both. I've seen the apps mentioned and I'm not aware of any that will function as described in this idea - that will, for example, tell the user that it's going to rain in midtown Manhattan in 17 minutes, without the user having to look at maps or calculate wind speeds or estimate to the nearest hour, etc. |
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Perhaps I've missed it but this is not something I've found in the apps mentioned (or any others I've checked). It's a function I would be personally interested in, and if something does that now, I'd like to see it. |
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// ...rain in midtown Manhattan in 17 minutes,
without the user having to look at maps or calculate
wind speeds or estimate to the nearest hour, etc. |
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This is the idea - and this is not baked at all. |
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I see... For that, I have my left hand, which was surgically
reconstructed after being crushed in a car accident in 2002
and
now predicts the local weather by both hour and minute
with remarkable accuracy (I'm not kidding; I've said things
like "it's going to start raining in three minutes" and been
accurate within 10 or 15 seconds). Unfortunately, this
device is not network compatible. |
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You could develop a mini weather station that is cellphone-linked to a central computer, and distribute units of that all over town. Anybody who wants to participate in your insta-weather service has to buy one and set it up (inputting GPS location). |
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A solar powered mini weather station should be cheap, and probably already exists. (For early rain detection, you could aim a camera at a horizontal surface, and set the computer to watch for dark spots.) |
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Try Weather Underground <link>. You can zoom to
neighborhood level and show storm tracks. Each
segment is 20 minutes. I used this when I lived in the
anus of the world (Oklahoma) and I could plan trips
with ease and knew when to burrow underground or
carry an umbrella. |
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//Then I'd say you're describing a magical function.
I don't think it's that hard. Radar images seem to
show incoming precipitation quite nicely. If an
area of rain is on an intercept trajectory with your
GPS coordinates, it should be feasible to work out
ETA. By definition real time weather prediction
must be easier to accomplish than long term
weather prediction. After all if I ask you, what will
be the weather where you are 1 second from now
(real time),
chances are that even without a lot of
meteorological training you will answer correctly
every single time. If I ask you the same
question but 1 week into the future, you won't do
that great. This idea deals with sub 30 minute
prediction ... and is therefore quite feasible.
Analysis of incoming precipitation
track as seen on radar is the key technology here
.. not magic. |
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There's no magic. During severe weather, local television weather reports will frequently indicate the time of arrival of a severe storm at a specific location to the exact minute using their "storm tracker super doppler 9000" stuff. So this is doable, and is often done, just not in an app local to the user. |
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I like your idea because it seems to me well enough
defined as a definite improvement on all of the
widely used, current applications of existing
technologies. It is an easy jump of faith for me to see
your idea as a standard, in the near future. |
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Also, I Imagine a browser device allowed access to
search histories, location, traffic, travel-pattern
histories, weather, local events, itineraries,
recent
conversations, text messages, contact's like
information and etc, being able
to
make better pertinent its adsmartish-funded
suggestions, on the fly. |
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REAL TIME RAIN NOWCASTING ALREADY EXISTS! |
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The technology is currently in initial user trials for
the US and Canada and you are more than welcome
to give it a try. Here's the link: |
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How this appears baked is beyond my comprehension. Yes I can look at a weather map, interpret wind direction, cloud type, moisture density, pressure, etc. Yes I can see a chance of rain on the weather channel app. Ineed, I can even look at the sky, and I often find my predictions to be quite accurate. None of the above allow me to press a button on my phone and see "Rain expected at your location in 14 minutes." Also, the accuracy of such an idea could be greatly increased if perhaps you gave the user a simple button which indicated the following "Was this prediction correct within 120 seconds? Has rain (or conversely shine) reached your location yet?" These could allow for the increased accuracy of equations used to calculate weather patterns, as well as update nearby users with more accurate information, if they were properly utilized. |
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Or just look at the bloody sky. |
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Why don't you just get your milk delivered, then you wouldn't have to risk going out & getting wet. |
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[ixnaum], it's in the oven, see link. In fact it is so much like what you describe, I wondered if you had something to do with it. |
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Are there any smart-phone apps which sense whether it is raining (e.g. phone is getting wet) and relay this info to a common server? This data could be gathered to provide a real-time location-specific map. |
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Move to central Thailand, it always rains at about 4pm in the afternoon for twenty or thirty minutes, then it's the dry season, doesn't rain for three months... |
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Or Cairo, it's going to rain for five minutes sometime next January. |
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11:31 am (local time), Jan 17, 2012, according to my right
knee. Should last for just under seven minutes, probably,
but my knee has been wrong before. |
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//my knee has been wrong before.//
I thought you said it was your right knee? |
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Yes. My right knee is the one that predicts the long-range
forecast (my left hand is the 24-hour forecaster), but it is
not infallible, so the statement is indeed that my right
knee has occasionally been wrong. |
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My left knee is _never_ wrong, but its facility lies not in
prediction of the weather. |
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// In fact it is so much like what you describe, I
wondered if you had something to do with it.
Nope ... but it doesn't surprise me. It's amazing how
these days everything has been thought of by
someone else. Explains why the whole idea of
patents is so ridiculous these days. |
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So it's coming in March, according to the CNN story, $5 to $10 app for iOS devices, planning an Android version to follow. |
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Rereading this idea, I'm still surprised at how quickly folks were to dismiss it as baked- often with near-malice toward the concept - when clearly nothing like it existed. |
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Nothing that functions in the exact manner proscribed by
the post exists, true, but there are many, many things that
do the same thing in different ways, using sattelites,
networked automated weather stations, my arthritic
joints, etc. That's why we jumped all over it. That, and
because it's fun to mock. |
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I think some comments on here belong at the 'exhibition of oafish bad manners' end of mockery, not sure how that makes their poster feel superior. |
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